Crypto Is About To Flip 2022
Watch Inflation And The Fed
James of MoneyZG is one sharp guy. We have become more and more impressed every day with his outlook on the crypto market.
Crypto Is About To Flip 2022
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FULL VIDEO TRANSCRIPT
00:00
hey guys this is a market update there’s
00:01
one key thing that we need to know that
00:03
it’s going to affect the price of
00:04
bitcoin and every other crypto in q1
00:07
2022 but really the first half of this
00:10
year and we need to know what’s going to
00:11
happen because what happens with
00:13
inflation is going to affect everything
00:15
else i’m going to talk about that in
00:16
this video i’m going to have a market
00:17
update with the price of bitcoin
00:19
ethereum and some other things that i’m
00:20
looking at i think all of these factors
00:22
are going to affect the price of the
00:24
crypto markets in the first half of 2022
00:27
i’m actually still very bullish but
00:28
there’s things to watch out for so let’s
00:30
get into it firstly before we get into
00:31
the video i have a cryptocurrency
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enter that if you want i’m giving away
00:37
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this giveaway is actually sponsored by
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platform i use them you can see i’ve got
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just go ahead and enter that you could
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win uh up to ten thousand bucks but i
00:54
want to get into the bitcoin chart
00:57
now everyone says cryptocurrency is
00:59
extremely volatile and i do agree with
01:01
them the last few months have been
01:03
boring right we’ve been in this huge
01:05
consolidation phase and we are still in
01:07
this we’re actually at the bottom of
01:08
this range right now um and i have to
01:10
actually redraw this area of value uh
01:13
just to make it longer because we’ve
01:14
just been ranging for so long and the
01:17
thing is is that um really the market is
01:20
anticipating what’s going to happen with
01:23
rates right so obviously at the moment
01:26
the fed has come out and said we need to
01:28
raise interest rates we need to stop the
01:29
buying because inflation is so high
01:31
inflation figures are the absolute key
01:34
to watch out for with the price of
01:36
bitcoin so i want to
01:37
touch on that later but for now in terms
01:39
of technical analysis we’re just still
01:41
in this range it just seems like every
01:43
time there is a bid
01:45
trying to raise the price of bitcoin it
01:47
gets hit and sellers come in and just
01:49
force it down volumes are low
01:52
and the volatility is low and it just
01:54
seems like we are ranging here it seems
01:56
like we’re waiting for some actual
01:58
economic figures to be coming out um
02:00
late in the later weeks so that’s where
02:02
we are for now also looking at ethereum
02:04
um ethereum looks really quite strong
02:07
and there’s some reasons for this
02:09
so you saw this dip out of this area of
02:11
value right so we had this consolidation
02:13
phase once more we actually dipped
02:14
underneath right so sellers came in and
02:16
said right let’s try and test this and
02:19
it looks like buyers have come back in
02:20
and pushed the price up why is that i
02:23
think it’s because of nft volumes
02:26
so going over to june analytics we can
02:28
see nft trading volumes on openc you
02:30
know we definitely had a lull right
02:32
towards the end of last year october
02:34
definitely trading volumes came off but
02:36
look at what’s happening now we’re just
02:37
seeing nft trading volumes tick up once
02:39
again on openc we have another one right
02:41
here you can definitely see that nfg
02:44
trading volumes are ticking up and
02:46
obviously to trade nfts you need
02:48
ethereum and that is where i think the
02:51
demand is coming from to basically keep
02:54
ethereum um in this kind of
02:56
consolidation phase or not um going down
02:59
as much as it may otherwise so some
03:01
fundamental usage is keeping the price
03:04
high and that’s a theme that i’m looking
03:06
at in the future where where i want to
03:08
invest is basically in chains that have
03:11
fundamental usage right so actual people
03:13
actual economies built on top and
03:15
definite demand for a token for a use
03:17
case and that will obviously um be very
03:20
beneficial for that token in the future
03:22
so that’s what i’m looking at going into
03:24
2022 and beyond is really actual use
03:26
cases and where the actual people are
03:29
using these tokens that’s really where i
03:31
want to be the thing that will affect
03:32
the price most in q1 2022 is inflation
03:36
and not inflation itself but actually
03:38
how the fed deals with inflation and how
03:40
the rate of inflation is changing so as
03:43
we know most people say that bitcoin is
03:45
an inflation hedge right so an inflation
03:47
hedge is supposed to go up in value when
03:49
inflation rises and that is true and
03:53
also not true it depends on the time
03:55
scale and it also depends on how the fed
03:58
actually
03:59
reacts to inflation so over the long
04:01
term a an asset that goes up in price is
04:04
obviously an inflation hedge because
04:06
inflation is pretty much constant at
04:08
some level and so anything that goes up
04:11
um you know ahead of inflation would be
04:13
considered an inflation hedge and
04:15
equities can be an inflation hedge but
04:17
obviously this type of asset really is
04:20
kind of more towards gold or you know
04:22
bitcoin which is kind of a digital gold
04:24
in some senses an inflation hedge put
04:26
your money in there when inflation is
04:28
high um to
04:30
as a trade to kind of uh you know um
04:32
secure some sort of upward movement in
04:35
the price against inflation
04:37
now that’s kind of true and kind of not
04:40
for uh bitcoin so
04:42
we can actually just look it isn’t
04:44
inflation itself that changes the price
04:47
of bitcoin it is the u.s federal
04:50
reserve’s reaction to inflation and how
04:53
it changes interest rates and monetaries
04:55
policy that actually ref um affects the
04:58
price of bitcoin and i’ll show you this
05:00
on the chart so
05:01
obviously towards you know um in 2020
05:04
you know when we had everything going on
05:07
the fed cut rates to zero to literally
05:10
zero right instantly they just said
05:12
right we’re gonna cut rates to zero and
05:13
we’re gonna buy 700 billion dollars
05:15
worth of assets right which is mostly
05:17
their own bonds um
05:19
let’s go over to the chart of bitcoin
05:20
and see when this happened right so we
05:22
can go down and what we want to do is
05:24
find um
05:26
the the the time which was march 15th
05:29
2020. so we’ll come in here
05:32
march uh which is is right here it’s
05:34
this point here right so you had this
05:35
big sell-off in the market right when
05:37
the you know when everything was
05:38
happening fed stepped in and said right
05:41
we’re just gonna print money and we’re
05:42
gonna give everyone money and um we’re
05:44
also going to put interest rates to zero
05:47
literally you can see on the same day 15
05:50
15th of march 2020 the price of bitcoin
05:54
started rising
05:55
and it just rose and rose and rose and
05:59
has been rising ever since
06:01
so what that tells me is that the price
06:04
of bitcoin is related quite closely to
06:06
the fed printing billions of dollars
06:09
basically um increasing the money supply
06:12
and huge um
06:14
lack of purchasing power for the dollar
06:17
right so the basement of currency but
06:20
inflation is very high now inflation we
06:22
know is six percent cpi much higher than
06:25
that really you know that’s the official
06:27
figures so why isn’t bitcoin at all-time
06:29
highs inflation is high right so bitcoin
06:31
should be all-time highs but it isn’t it
06:33
actually started coming off around
06:36
november time so another article and we
06:39
can see the fed again is expected is is
06:42
expected sorry to take a very big step
06:44
towards a rate hike raising interest
06:47
rates and reducing the amount of assets
06:49
that it borrows essentially tightening
06:51
its policy making money more expensive
06:55
now this was in december but actually
06:57
they started signaling this from
07:00
november when they started admitting
07:02
that inflation wasn’t transitory
07:04
inflation has become a massive problem
07:06
it is a big problem for the fed and so
07:08
they need to come out hit it hard become
07:10
hawkish and say we’re not printing as
07:12
much money
07:14
we’re raising interest rates we want the
07:15
economy to slow down we want inflation
07:17
to slow down that was around november
07:19
time and you can see the price of
07:21
bitcoin reacted perfectly to it there
07:24
with rising interest rates money
07:26
becoming more expensive and the fed
07:28
saying hold your horses bitcoin has come
07:30
off so for me bitcoin doesn’t rise with
07:34
inflation it rises with essentially the
07:36
price of dollars and how strong or weak
07:38
dollars are
07:39
and how much they can buy you
07:42
so
07:43
obviously relating this forward
07:45
what the fed does now in the first half
07:47
of 2022 and what inflation does is going
07:50
to be the key thing that affects the
07:52
price of bitcoin and therefore um you
07:54
know all the other all coins that are
07:56
obviously going to trade off this if
07:58
inflation does subside a little bit the
08:01
fed can ease off and say hey you know
08:03
what we don’t have to raise interest
08:05
rates as quickly or as much and we can
08:08
be a little bit looser with monetary
08:09
policy i think the price of bitcoin um
08:13
we’ll just have a bigger bid underneath
08:15
it prices should kind of melt up if
08:17
inflation continues to be really high
08:19
and a big problem for the fed i think
08:22
the fed still has to remain very
08:24
hawkish reduce asset purchases you know
08:27
raise interest rates and just be a very
08:30
hawkish fed that doesn’t seem like it’s
08:32
going to be a very good uh thing for the
08:34
price of bitcoin in general so that’s
08:36
what i’m looking at really this year i
08:38
obviously don’t know what’s going to
08:39
happen with all of this we have to wait
08:40
for the numbers but if you’re looking
08:42
for general generally what’s going to
08:43
happen the price of bitcoin and
08:45
therefore cryptos it really is the
08:46
inflation figures and then how the fed
08:49
reacts to those
08:50
apart from this there are really four
08:52
things that i can see massive catalysts
08:54
for this year that i’m also looking at
08:55
that are going to be very separate from
08:57
this and i think we could still see a
08:59
lot of volatility maybe trading up
09:01
because
09:02
um of these events so actually i’ve got
09:05
them written down here the first one is
09:06
a spot bitcoin etf we’ve got these
09:09
around the world we’re really looking
09:10
for the states to do something right so
09:12
i think this is a positive if we have a
09:15
spot etf it’s a general positive because
09:17
obviously we can have a lot more cash
09:20
and assets flowing into the space
09:22
generally if a bitcoin sport etf is
09:24
accepted i think that’s generally a
09:26
positive sign
09:27
um the next one is stable coins and i
09:29
also think this is positive
09:31
i think this year we’re going to get a
09:32
lot of regulatory clarity over the
09:35
crypto space and i only see this as a
09:37
long term a good thing we need
09:39
regulation otherwise it will always be
09:41
a you know wild west market and if we
09:44
truly want bitcoin crypto to become 10
09:47
50 trillion in you know multiple years
09:49
time then it needs to be regulated the
09:52
fed has already come out and said this
09:54
this is the board of governors of the
09:55
fed they’ve come out and said here’s
09:57
some areas that we need to regulate uh
09:59
the first one or there’s a few here but
10:01
really the the one that i’m looking at
10:03
is including stable coins now circle
10:05
maker of usdc went before the
10:08
um went before congress and basically it
10:11
looks like they’re going to be
10:12
one of the chosen partners for stable
10:14
coins which is a very good thing
10:16
and stable coins for me are positive
10:19
stable queen regulation is positive for
10:21
the price of bitcoin because it just
10:23
means that more uh more money can flow
10:25
in and more money flowing in you know
10:27
it’s not it’s not going to just moon the
10:30
price overnight but it’s generally a
10:32
good thing in the right step the next is
10:34
east 2.0 i see this as a positive
10:36
generally for the space in many
10:38
different ways i’m not going to get into
10:39
that now because it’s very very complex
10:41
but ether 2.0 generally i think is a
10:43
very good thing for you know many other
10:46
app apps as well and daps and and pretty
10:48
much the space in general so this could
10:50
be a very big uh key um
10:53
uh like uh time for us and then rates of
10:56
inflation
10:57
this is this is not good right so what
11:00
we have to see is where is inflation
11:03
what is the fed going to do about that
11:04
because despite all of these three
11:06
things that i think may be coming in
11:09
2022 and will be very positive for the
11:11
price of crypto rates and inflation is
11:14
really a massive cloud over absolutely
11:16
everything and as you’ve just seen
11:18
bitcoin and therefore other cryptos will
11:20
react most strongly to what the fed is
11:23
doing so that’s why i think cryptos are
11:24
consolidating right now i think there’s
11:26
just a huge amount of uncertainty about
11:28
what inflation is and what the fed will
11:30
do about that we can also see that
11:31
volumes are really low so if we come
11:33
over to exchanges right here and we see
11:34
the spot exchanges we can actually see
11:36
that volumes are just starting to pick
11:39
up and this is a good sign you know you
11:40
need high volume to really show us where
11:42
the price should be um you can see
11:44
across the board on spot exchanges we’re
11:47
just seeing volumes start to come back
11:49
in so this is a good sign obviously
11:50
people are coming back to trade after
11:52
the christmas break um you know and
11:54
across indexes and also derivatives as
11:57
well we’re just seeing um volumes just
12:00
start up again after the break so this
12:02
is a very good thing but they’re really
12:03
things i’m keeping an eye on the
12:05
fundamentals as you can see here and
12:06
really inflation as well um so if you do
12:09
want to enter the crypto giveaway uh go
12:11
ahead and do that i’ll leave the link in
12:12
the description giving away 10 000 bucks
12:14
thanks to pioneers you can check out a
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tutorial that i made for them in the
12:18
description as well also for crypto
12:20
course members i’ve got over 30 videos
12:23
coming to the crypto course that will be
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free for you guys um if you want to
12:26
check out my crypto course that will be
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linked in the description got 30 videos
12:30
planned and more that are coming very
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soon free for existing users price goes
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up when they’re added as well but check
12:35
all of that out in the description i’m
12:37
james with money’s eg cheers for
12:38
watching and i’ll see in the next one