Crypto Price Prediction Jul 15 2021
Are We Now in a Wyckoff Distribution and Consolidation
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what the hell is going on with the
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crypto market
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it’s what we’re all wondering these days
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and nobody seems to have a definitive
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answer
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the bears believe a crash is coming the
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bulls believe the best is yet to come
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but we haven’t seen a dump and we
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haven’t seen a pump
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instead the market’s moving sideways
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like the calm
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before the storm and like the weather
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there’s no predicting what will happen
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next but with enough data points you can
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make an
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educated guess so today i’m going to
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examine a few
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facts stats and indicators to figure out
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where we are in the crypto market
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and what is likely to come next
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whether you’re a bull or a bear there’s
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a disclaimer of which you must be made
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aware
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nothing in this video should be
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interpreted as a financial or investment
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suggestion
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please don’t fomo into any crypto i
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mentioned
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everything here is for your education
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and enjoyment
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something to take the edge off of your
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employment
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if this is your first time stopping by
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my name is guy and this channel is
01:09
packed with enough crypto content
01:11
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reviews exchanges defy tutorials and
01:17
more
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if these topics don’t interest you have
01:19
fun staying poor
01:21
if you’re in tune with the future of
01:22
finance subscribe to the channel and
01:24
ping that notification
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bell per chance you can use the
01:28
timestamps in the video timeline to skip
01:30
ahead to any interesting topics you find
01:32
the more you watch the more you’ll
01:34
expand your mind
01:35
now that we’re on the same wave let’s
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see why the crypto market has been so
01:39
lame
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if you’ve been keeping up with my weekly
01:44
crypto reviews you’ll know that i’ve
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been watching bitcoin’s price action
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through a wyckoff lens
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as a quick recap wykoff was a guy who
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noticed
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over 100 years ago that institutions and
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large investors
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manipulate markets after watching their
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influence over the markets
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wyckoff noticed that they would create
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the same four
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price patterns over and over
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these are designed to attract and then
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shake out
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retail investors leaving them with less
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than they came in with
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wyckoff’s distribution schematic lines
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up quite perfectly with bitcoin’s price
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action in
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april and may and this is something that
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was first noticed by another crypto
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youtuber
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called uncomplication nobody believed
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him at the time but
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since the crash in mid-may wyckoff has
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become a
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household name amongst crypto holders in
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my own video about the wyckoff method
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i considered the possibility that we
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have entered a wyckoff accumulation
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and this is the pattern i’ve been
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tracking since then
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initially i overestimated the amount of
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time it would take
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for the pattern to play out which is a
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common mistake
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another common mistake is the belief
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that a wykoff on the one hour
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means we’re headed to the moon now as
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most traders will know
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the longer the time frame the stronger
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the trend
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my wyckoff analysis is being done on the
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daily chart for your information
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assuming we’re still in an accumulation
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phase we have another
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six weeks left before the crypto market
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really begins to recover
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we may or may not see another big dip
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before then
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i say assuming because it’s possible
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that we’re actually in a different
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wyckoff pattern or not in any wyckoff
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pattern at all
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the alternative wyckoff pattern in
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question is redistribution
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which looks like an accumulation in the
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first half but results in another
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massive consolidation to the downside
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in the second half as you can see
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wyckoff’s redistribution pattern looks
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eerily similar to bitcoin’s current
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price action
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and even more so than the accumulation
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pattern
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now before you pan excel though consider
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the fact that institutions are probably
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aware
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that most crypto investors know about
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wykoff
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uncomplications video has 1 million
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views and mine is nearing 800 000.
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almost every article i’ve seen about
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wyckoff in the crypto media has also had
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tons of views and shares what this means
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is that we might see
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institutions violate the wyckoff pattern
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in the same way that they violate the
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technical analysis patterns
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the average trader is seeing and using
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in other words
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we could see confirmation of a wyckoff
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redistribution taking place
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only to see the price suddenly snap to
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the upside
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as such i don’t think ta is a reliable
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way to view the crypto market at the
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moment
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not even with wykoff so what now
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well the convenient thing about crypto’s
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sideways price action is that there are
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only
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two ways prices can go from here up or
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down
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if technical analysis is full of doubt
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we need
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to zoom out in case you missed the memo
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the crypto market is part of the broader
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financial market
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now that the institutions are involved
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this has been the case
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since bitcoin futures began trading on
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the cme in late 2017
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and some believe this is when
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institutional manipulation of the crypto
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markets began
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it also explains why the cryptocurrency
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market is increasingly correlated with
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the stock market which is wall street’s
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home turf
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as i mentioned in my video about what
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influences bitcoin’s price
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cryptocurrencies are in the deep end of
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the risk pool as far as investments go
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as you move to the shallow end of the
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risk pool you’ll encounter growth stocks
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value stocks and finally government
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bonds which are the lowest risk
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investments
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and consequently offer the lowest
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returns
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when confidence in the market is high
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investors are more likely to take risks
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in exchange for higher rewards
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when confidence in the market is low
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they move their money to risk off assets
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in the shallow end of the pool
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so they won’t get wrecked by the waves
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right now
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almost every stock is hitting all-time
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highs even growth stocks that have
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similar risk profiles to bitcoin
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this begs the question why is the
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cryptocurrency market flat
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while everything else rallies well there
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are two
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possibilities here the first possibility
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is that we are on the brink of a massive
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crash across the board
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this would prompt most investors to sell
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their riskiest assets first
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and that list includes cryptocurrencies
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the cause of this potential crash will
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likely be the same things last time
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and that’s the pandemic as cnbc’s jim
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cramer pointed out
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investors are starting to get nervous
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about the possibility
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of more lockdowns in the fall due to the
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spread of
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new variants around the world this is
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reflected in government bond yields
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which have been decreasing
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as investors pile into bonds for safety
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if a crash happens it’s possible we
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could enter a bear market
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and i happen to have a video that can
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help you plan for that
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it’s up there in the top right
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the second possibility is that investors
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are hesitant to buy cryptocurrencies
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for other reasons besides risk after all
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they wouldn’t be buying similarly risky
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stocks and assets if risk was the main
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concern
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according to arc invest ceo kathy wood
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big investors are looking for two things
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in the crypto market
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resiliency and sustainability
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most of them pulled out because of
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china’s crackdown on crypto mining in
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may
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you might recall that this was one of
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the primary causes of the crypto crash
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kathy likens china’s crackdown on crypto
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mining to china’s crackdown on crypto
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trading
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in september 2017 which tanked the
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market just a few months before its
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record-setting rally
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back then big investors waited until the
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trading volumes of
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became more evenly distributed around
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the world and
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recovered their liquidity before buying
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back in
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today big investors are waiting until
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bitcoin mining becomes more evenly
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distributed around the world
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and for its hash rate to recover this
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is finally starting to happen as chinese
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miners set up shop in other countries
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bitcoin mining is also getting greener
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by the day which was another pain point
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for many institutional investors
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lo and behold the big buyers are
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starting to come back
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as i mentioned in last week’s crypto
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review publicly traded cryptocurrency
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funds
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have started adding to their holdings
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for the first time in over five
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weeks bitcoin wales have also started
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stacking
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a significant amount of sats according
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to glass nodes on chain analytics
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it’s worth pointing out that this
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indicator further supports the notion of
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institutional market manipulation
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alawikov in may the btc balance
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says it all now for the real question
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what comes next for the crypto market
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even though a crash is somewhere on the
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horizon i believe
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that we’re going to see one more massive
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run-up before then
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and here’s why for starters there are
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going to be some seriously bullish
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developments for almost
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every major cryptocurrency ecosystem
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over the next two months
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on september the 7th bitcoin will
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officially become
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legal tender in el salvador this could
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see a flood of demand for btc
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come from the country and speculative
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investors
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ethereum’s eip1559 upgrade has been
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confirmed for august 4th which is less
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than a month
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away this will see a portion of all eth
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gas fees burned with the remainder going
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to crypto miners
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with enough transactions on the network
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this could offset
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eth’s inflation and turn it into a
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deflationary asset
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consensus also claims that eip1559 will
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slightly reduce
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gas costs cardano could see smart
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contracts roll out on its blockchain as
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early as
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august which is something that the
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crypto community has been
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not so patiently awaiting polkadot will
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also
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likely begin its parachain slot auctions
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in august which will enable its own
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smart contract functionalities once
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these upgrades go through the demand for
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the smart contract cryptocurrencies is
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going to go
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through the roof for one reason d5
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the yields you can find on even the most
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vanilla d5 protocols
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are much higher than anything any
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centralized financial institution
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can currently offer you investors big
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and small
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are feeling the squeeze from low
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interest rates and high inflation which
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basically make
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any yield below five to seven percent a
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break-even number
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this is why institutional investors have
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been piling into d5
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and kathy wood believes this adoption
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was actually facilitated by the crypto
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market crash
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in mid-may this is because institutions
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were able to see
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that cryptocurrency’s d5 protocols are
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resilient
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to massive market downturns of 50
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percent primarily
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those operating on ethereum this might
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be
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why institutions have had such a
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favorable view of ethereum as of late
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whereas bitcoin is still recovering from
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its hashrate collapse
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ethereum’s has been comparatively
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unaffected and its decentralized
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financial ecosystem
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has likewise remained stable i’m sure
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that
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institutions also like that they can
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have a say in ethereum 2.0
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by staking eth which is something that
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is now available at a bank
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in switzerland because of these and
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other factors such as general user
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adoption
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i think it’s very possible that we’ll
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see ethereum flip bitcoin by market cap
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when the next bull run comes around this
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is essentially guaranteed if ethereum
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sees an etf before bitcoin and it looks
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like
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this might just happen some of you might
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recall that vanek
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filed for an ethereum etf back in may
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this year
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later that month wisdomtree followed
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suit with its own ethereum etf
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while there’s been a lot of news about
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bitcoin etf decisions being delayed by
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the sec
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i’ve not seen anything about these
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ethereum etfs
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i wasn’t able to find any evidence of
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delays for these etf filings when i went
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looking either
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now the sec has 45 days to approve or
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reject an etf or extend its decision
12:10
period this means we should have heard
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something about van x ethereum etf which
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was filed on may
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7th which was 66 days ago
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as for the wisdom tree ethereum etf the
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sec had until july the 12th
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no news there either however these
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timelines assume that the 45 day window
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means
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regular days and not business days which
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is again something i wasn’t able to find
12:33
clarification on
12:35
on the off chance that the sec’s
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deadline is measured in business days
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this means they would have made a
12:40
decision to approve reject or postpone
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van x ethereum etf on july the 9th with
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wisdomtree’s decision date
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set for july 30th this timeline would
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explain
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why we haven’t heard anything about
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these ethereum etfs yet and it could
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even mean
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that van x has been approved already as
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it’s unlikely that news would come out
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right away
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now perhaps this is just wishful
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thinking but as far as i’m concerned
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it’s not a question of if but when now
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you can learn
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more about etfs and what effects they
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could have on the crypto market by
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watching my video about that
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using the link up there in the top right
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so this leaves one last topic to tackle
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and that’s
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price predictions let’s start with the
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bearish
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scenarios if the bottom completely falls
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out of the crypto market
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the lowest we’re likely to go is the 20k
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range
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this is because 20k is the previous bull
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market high
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and it’s also a psychologically
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comfortable number
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note that we could wick below 20k
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because of bitcoin liquidations
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courtesy of over leveraged traders
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this would correspond to a 35 to 40
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drop from today’s prices given that all
13:54
coins typically shed 50 to 100
13:56
more than bitcoin during these dips this
13:58
would correspond to a 70 to 80
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dip for large and mid-cap altcoins
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likely more
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for small cap altcoins if there happens
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to be some black swan event that results
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in a total freefall
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the danger zone is somewhere in the 5 to
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7k range
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this is because that’s the price at
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which bitcoin mining is no longer
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profitable
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even with a significant hash rate
14:20
adjustment
14:21
the good news is that this is a way away
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from current prices and would require a
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colossal crash of nearly
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90 percent obviously this would decimate
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almost every altcoin on the market in
14:33
the most extreme bull scenario
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bitcoin could reach as high as 500k
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which would put its market cap on a par
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with gold
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this is the price point that many
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wealthy individuals and institutions are
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shooting for
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though their timelines are much longer
14:48
than the next five months and rightfully
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so
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unless half the planet adopts bitcoin as
14:53
legal tender during that time
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there is no way that 11 trillion dollars
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will find its way into btc
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by the end of 2021 which is the market
15:02
cap it would need
15:03
to hit that price a more realistic
15:06
expectation is the 100 to 200k
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range which is an easily achievable
15:10
target if a bitcoin etf is approved in
15:13
the united states
15:14
before the year’s end this would work
15:17
out to a modest
15:18
4 to 6x move from current prices most
15:21
large cap altcoins would see comparable
15:23
gains with many mid
15:24
and low caps likely doubling that
15:27
although i do have a video dedicated to
15:29
spotting the top
15:30
i will preface it with the fact that
15:31
institutions may
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once again try and manipulate the top
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the way they did back in april and may
15:38
this means we might not see the same
15:40
blow off top we’ve seen in previous bull
15:42
markets
15:42
at least not for bitcoin you can find
15:45
that video on how to spot the top by
15:47
using that link
15:48
up there in the top right and i suggest
15:50
you watch my video about the wyckoff
15:52
method as well
15:53
that’s in the video description
15:57
i’ll admit that i felt a lot more
15:59
confident about the crypto market after
16:01
doing the research for this video
16:03
as loud and strident as the crypto fud
16:05
has been recently
16:06
i couldn’t shake the feeling that
16:08
something was off
16:09
how is it that everything else is
16:11
rallying while the crypto market is
16:13
trading sideways
16:15
i figured there must be more to this
16:17
story and it seems
16:18
my suspicions were correct the clampdown
16:21
on cryptocurrencies by various countries
16:23
around the world
16:24
coupled with concerns about the
16:25
environment really seemed to have
16:27
spooked
16:28
individual and institutional investors
16:31
these situations are
16:32
improving and the return to regular
16:34
network operations
16:35
seems to be happening faster for
16:37
ethereum than bitcoin
16:39
if resiliency sustainability and
16:41
decentralization
16:43
are truly what institutions are looking
16:45
for in cryptocurrency
16:46
then the recent regulatory moves against
16:49
binance suggests that trading volume
16:51
is the final frontier binance still
16:54
handles
16:54
most of the market activity for crypto
16:57
on any given day
16:58
and this is probably what serious
17:00
investors are really taking issue with
17:02
progress is being made on that front as
17:05
well and most of cryptocurrency’s core
17:07
issues
17:08
are set to be resolved in the coming
17:10
months although a black swan event is
17:12
always on the table with this damn
17:14
pandemic a white swan
17:16
is much more likely in my book this
17:19
could be anything from tesla announcing
17:21
that it’s accepting bitcoin payments
17:23
again
17:24
to an ethereum or bitcoin etf it could
17:27
even be
17:28
another country announcing that it will
17:30
be making bitcoin legal tender
17:32
now while i’m skeptical that any
17:34
combination of bullish announcements
17:35
could take us past 200k
17:37
this time around higher price points are
17:40
definitely on the menu for bitcoin
17:42
and just about every other
17:43
cryptocurrency on the market
17:45
in the long term except for coins
17:49
of course if you enjoyed today’s video
17:52
be a champ and give that like button a
17:53
pat i’ve got plenty more content coming
17:56
down the pipe so
17:57
subscribe to the channel and ping that
17:59
notification bell on the bottom right
18:02
this isn’t the only place you can find
18:04
me either i’m active on tiktok instagram
18:06
telegram and twitter
18:08
i even have a weekly newsletter that
18:10
contains my personal cryptocurrency
18:12
portfolio
18:13
as well as boatloads of information
18:15
about the market that you
18:17
need to know if you’ve made some gains
18:19
consider heading over to the coin bureau
18:21
merch store to level up your fashion
18:22
game
18:23
you can find your way to these handy
18:25
resources using the links in the video
18:27
description
18:28
well that’s a wrap thank you all so much
18:30
for watching i’m off to take a nap
18:33
night night
18:44
you
Crypto Price Prediction Jul 15 2021
