What Is The Cardano Price Potential
Paul Barron Gives Some Great Advice On Cardano Price Prediction
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Cardano July Price Prediction | ADA +20% Gains? 📈
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What Is The Cardano Price Potential
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TRANSCRIPT
all right so is cardano
00:08
in trouble or is this an evil plan of
00:11
charles hoskinson to take over the defy
00:13
world
00:14
today we’re going to find out let’s dive
00:15
into it my name is paul baron welcome
00:17
back to techpath
00:18
let’s go into a little about where
00:20
cardano is
00:21
today first of all let’s just take a
00:23
quick look over here at of course
00:25
coin market cap we’ll take a look at
00:28
where cardano
00:29
is floating at 142 and a lot of people
00:32
are speculating that this
00:33
might be uh a kind of a calm before the
00:36
storm and the storm could go either
00:38
up or down i know that’s not really a
00:40
prediction but we’re going to dive into
00:42
why this might be happening but if you
00:44
look at the three-month trend
00:46
obviously back here in mid-may all of
00:48
our fall off and this kind of this flat
00:50
movement
00:51
other than this light move toward
00:55
where we’re trading at right now in the
00:56
mid 140s
00:58
is kind of interesting so it’s going to
00:59
be one of those things that i think a
01:01
lot of people are looking at here’s the
01:03
thing i look at
01:05
is when founders and also
01:08
project leads start to do a lot more
01:10
media
01:11
it does get into kind of an overview of
01:14
whether or not
01:15
what is it that they’re either trying to
01:17
say or trying to
01:19
hide anyway so let’s jump to a couple of
01:22
things i want to also kind of support
01:24
what the sentiment data has been so
01:26
let’s jump over to trade the chain real
01:27
quick and kind of see where this seven
01:29
day
01:30
is what you’ll notice here is nothing
01:33
special
01:34
this is a little bit both concerning
01:38
but if you’re looking at cardano on a
01:40
long-term hold this might be exactly
01:42
where you want it to be but a little bit
01:43
on the negative side in terms of overall
01:45
sentiment
01:46
and of course pricing somewhat flat over
01:49
the last week
01:50
in terms of where it’s gone now when you
01:52
look at that and compare it to what’s
01:54
been
01:54
in the news you wonder why is cardano
01:58
not
01:58
just exploding right now with both all
02:01
the news from
02:02
alonzo potentially rolling out this
02:04
summer
02:05
to etoro basically saying this right
02:08
here which is
02:10
etoro’s kind of whole move where cardano
02:13
has leap
02:13
frogged bitcoin as the most held
02:16
cryptocurrency look at the
02:18
holdings right here uh which is kind of
02:20
interesting cardano’s a
02:21
d a as leapfrog bitcoin should become
02:23
the most held
02:24
in 2021 this is q2 51 increase on the
02:28
previous quarter
02:29
which is huge uh over bitcoin which led
02:32
the crypto asset bull run at the start
02:34
of the year reminder
02:35
this also remained a popular at 42
02:38
increase in demand however it was
02:39
eclipsed by
02:40
cardano and slipped from first to second
02:43
place so for
02:44
bitcoin to essentially get kind of
02:47
slotted down
02:48
on the etoro platform that tells me one
02:50
that there’s
02:52
a lot of people that are really looking
02:53
at cardano to make a move so is this an
02:55
early precursor to potentially where
02:59
cardano could be going
03:00
i want to also look over here at
03:02
grayscale this was the article over here
03:04
by coin telegraph
03:06
graysdell grayscale adds cardano to
03:09
their digital large cap
03:10
fund after their rebalancing let me kind
03:13
of point this out right here
03:14
obviously you can kind of see they’ve
03:16
added it to the the large cap fund
03:18
uh reflecting growing demand for crypto
03:20
investments pretty clear
03:22
but as of july 1st 2021 each share
03:25
of their gdlc basket is comprised of 67
03:30
bitcoin basically 25 ether and almost
03:33
five percent
03:34
cardano right there so and of course the
03:37
remaining is a mix of uh bitcoin cash
03:40
litecoin and chain link so you can kind
03:42
of see
03:43
and of course when you look at the the
03:45
overall coin market cap
03:46
cardano is right there in the top five
03:49
in in all cases
03:51
and the scenario doesn’t surprise me
03:52
that we’ve seen this kind of move both
03:54
from grayscale and
03:55
also from and seeing the retail investor
03:59
traffic over on etoro so that that is
04:02
all
04:02
in good and well for cardeno and i think
04:05
that’s the the point that everybody’s
04:06
looking to
04:07
you get a lot of subtle movements in the
04:10
market that are causing people to say
04:12
okay what’s going up with cadano
04:13
and of course cardano is in a position
04:16
right now where they’re going to roll
04:17
out the alonzo
04:19
project advancement this summer now
04:23
here’s the point abm crypto reports
04:26
basically as alonzo white can sue go
04:28
live on testnet
04:29
but here are the problems and this is
04:32
kind of where it starts breaking down
04:34
right now at this stage we don’t have
04:36
the core support mechanisms so
04:38
plutus which is their back end is not in
04:40
place
04:41
obviously you need that uh to be able
04:43
just to move forward
04:45
and if you look at uh it can be as
04:47
simple as a transaction in the returns
04:49
hello world to our confirmation of
04:50
payment that has been made this means we
04:53
have alonzo running on a smart contract
04:55
not happening not yet and then here is
04:58
the other one
04:59
as we move into white we’ll do it in
05:02
steps so this
05:03
tells me that we’re as a team if i was
05:06
looking at development team and
05:07
and i’ve worked in this area before in
05:10
software development project development
05:11
in advanced systems like this and a lot
05:14
of times what you do
05:15
is try to do these micro steps to be
05:18
able to get to the next phase and a lot
05:19
of cases you’re
05:20
you’re kind of leveraging out basically
05:24
things you
05:24
either the development team don’t have
05:26
an answer for so you get to where you
05:28
can
05:29
and try to move the project forward and
05:31
i think that might be where cardano is
05:33
right now because we’re not necessarily
05:35
getting a full disclosure and granted
05:38
you know not that charles is going to go
05:39
out and say hey this is a full
05:41
disclosure on
05:42
on what we’re doing and where it’s going
05:44
but when i look at things like what he
05:46
did on the lex podcast
05:48
where he’s won doing the interview and
05:50
not that that’s a bad thing
05:51
but when you look at a lot of these
05:53
founders and a lot of these
05:54
uh people who are out there in the media
05:57
there’s usually as i said there’s
05:58
usually a bit of agenda now this was a
05:59
five-hour interview now one thing i did
06:01
pull out of the interview and i think
06:02
this is something that you guys
06:04
will really like here on the channel is
06:07
mainly so you can understand
06:09
the proof of work and the proof of stake
06:12
argument
06:12
and why it exists and why charles is the
06:15
way he is
06:16
around proof of stake i want to jump to
06:18
a clip from the lex friedman podcast
06:21
that really gives you a good
06:23
understanding this is a little bit of a
06:25
longer clip
06:26
but we’ll be right back you guys can
06:27
check this clip out and then i’m going
06:29
to give you some price predictions
06:30
and where i think cardano’s going to be
06:31
going let’s cut to that
06:33
okay so they all have the same three
06:35
properties of pick someone in charge do
06:37
something and validate it the difference
06:39
is that the picking mechanism for proof
06:41
of work is
06:42
you have to solve a puzzle so it’s
06:44
basically like buying lottery tickets
06:45
and you can buy a certain amount every
06:48
second with your computing devices
06:50
and some of them are asic resistance you
06:52
run them on like a laptop or a gpu
06:54
and some of them are you specialized
06:56
hardware that you have to either
06:57
manufacture
06:58
or buy from someone who sells it to you
07:00
and that’s just how many tickets
07:02
per second you can get and eventually
07:03
you hit those magic numbers when you do
07:06
it means you have the right to make the
07:08
block and generally you bundle the block
07:10
making with the proof-of-work system
07:12
now you can do this looking for a single
07:15
or you can do this to actually shard it
07:16
and look for multiple block makers at
07:18
the same time
07:19
so there are sharded proof of work
07:20
protocols like prism is an example of
07:22
that
07:23
and actually ethereum got started this
07:25
way with spectre and
07:27
ghost and phantom the obvi avi zahar’s
07:29
work and yonatan son lipinski
07:31
but the basic idea is you pick some
07:33
collection of people they make some
07:35
collection of things and there’s some
07:36
way to sort it all out serialize it and
07:37
prevent double spends
07:39
great proof of stake is the same but
07:42
it’s a synthetic resource
07:43
so instead of doing things they say well
07:45
if you had 25
07:46
of the hash power on average over a long
07:48
period of time you’d probably win 25
07:50
of the time well why don’t we just
07:52
introduce some randomness in
07:54
from some source and then 25 percent of
07:56
the time on average over a long period
07:57
of time you’ll win
07:59
so it’s a synthetic resource but you
08:01
still have to do the other two things
08:02
you still have to make the block and you
08:04
still have to validate the block
08:06
the big difference is this step in the
08:08
proof of work world is horrendously
08:10
expensive
08:10
you use more energy than the nation of
08:12
switzerland and the problem with that is
08:14
that you have less resources for the
08:16
other two
08:17
and the other problem with that is that
08:18
if this is horrendously expensive you
08:20
have an economy of scale
08:21
kitkat so what ends up happening is the
08:23
system becomes less decentralized over
08:26
time because you have these vertically
08:27
integrated operations
08:29
i mean not everybody can go build a
08:30
mining facility on a volcano in el
08:32
salvador
08:33
not everybody can go to mongolia and set
08:35
up a five gigawatt power plant and a
08:37
huge data thing
08:38
not everybody has access to the patented
08:40
asics that people produce
08:42
because what if i don’t sell it to you
08:43
and i have the patent on it or what if i
08:45
control the supply chain for these
08:46
things
08:47
so you’ll end up having centralization
08:49
around maybe ten or
08:51
five major operations as we’ve seen
08:53
historically with proof of work
08:55
and that means you end up having a
08:58
ruling class of a mining oligarchy in
09:00
the system
09:01
proof of stake if you design the
09:03
parameters correctly you
09:05
actually get more decentralized over
09:06
time because as the currency goes up in
09:08
value
09:09
the distribution of the currency tends
09:11
to get
09:12
more more egalitarian as for example
09:15
bill gates when he started
09:17
microsoft he had 64 of the shares now he
09:20
has less than five percent of the shares
09:22
so this founder drift over time as the
09:24
value goes up divestment occurs
09:26
you have more and more and more people
09:28
coming in that means there’s more people
09:29
who can participate in the consensus
09:31
you can even tune economic parameters
09:33
and this is what we did with
09:34
cardano and orabora’s we we created this
09:37
concept of
09:37
k in the system and it’s just a
09:39
parameter and it’s it’s like a forcing
09:41
factor that tends to
09:42
accumulate a certain amount of stake
09:44
pools so you can set it to 200 and 500
09:46
and a thousand and so forth
09:48
but the basic idea is as the price of
09:50
eta goes up
09:51
you make k larger and then you end up in
09:54
practical terms having a larger and
09:56
larger
09:56
set of actors making blocks that are
09:59
unique and distinct
10:00
and the other good thing is this is a
10:02
virtual resource instead of a physical
10:04
resource
10:05
which means it’s portable by a click of
10:07
a button so let’s say china says mining
10:09
is bad we’re going to shut it all down
10:11
it looks like they’re moving in that
10:12
direction
10:13
you have all these people in wechat just
10:14
like trying to sell miners or trying to
10:16
figure out how the hell do i move miners
10:18
you know
10:18
because they have these huge data
10:20
centers they’ve constructed you can’t
10:21
exactly go and grab a server and like
10:23
take it with you it’s huge
10:24
it’s a lot of work and if the government
10:26
sees it well it’s their property now
10:28
a virtual resource you can click a
10:29
button and redeploy it to
10:31
a different jurisdiction so to me for a
10:34
virtual asset
10:35
it makes a lot more sense to try to tie
10:37
your security to something endogenous
10:39
something within the system
10:41
because it’s it’s just like the asset it
10:43
can move anywhere at a click of a button
10:45
and human beings have a much harder time
10:47
attacking something like that
10:50
all right so what you see there with
10:51
charles is he’s really laying out
10:54
the proof of stake model and why it is
10:57
one that i think is going to put cardano
11:01
way ahead in the industry around where
11:04
this is going and why
11:06
blockchain in general will be able to
11:08
connect so many dots out there
11:10
for a variety of industries a variety of
11:12
technology needs a variety of use
11:14
cases all those kind of things are going
11:15
to play into this so the question is
11:17
going to be
11:18
here and that is how does cardano
11:21
and you’re watching the show you’re
11:22
obviously an investor just as a reminder
11:24
when we do these market movers
11:26
they’re a little different okay we
11:28
compile all this stuff together for you
11:30
the main thing is we layer in both
11:33
research and
11:34
um obviously things like this where we
11:36
dive into these
11:38
ridiculously long podcasts but the key
11:41
thing here is it’s not investment advice
11:42
the key thing is it’s giving you
11:44
hopefully an idea of where you want to
11:48
take your research and how you’re going
11:49
to be moving forward with your research
11:51
so i want to jump over to this next
11:52
story
11:54
and this is the one that i think is
11:56
interesting around
11:57
where cardano could be uh before
12:01
it maybe moves up the scale in terms of
12:05
its next price position
12:06
so this basically is talking about we
12:08
may see a pullback
12:10
the main thing here is the price has
12:12
been on a 43 uptrend since bottoming out
12:14
in june
12:15
uh 22nd uh ada is
12:18
stuck consolidating as it tries to scale
12:21
higher which
12:22
uh is indicating a little bit of
12:23
weakness and investors can expect about
12:26
a seven percent
12:27
retrace before a 22 percent uptrend to
12:30
161
12:31
uh in the kickstarts this is kind of
12:33
where some of the analysts are showing
12:35
this uptrend
12:36
of moving but when you look at both the
12:38
uptrend this was the
12:39
cardano price currently setting the
12:40
second lower high since july 4th
12:43
this move indicates the 16 upswing since
12:46
july 2nd which was slowing down
12:48
therefore investors need to be open to
12:49
the possibility
12:51
of a pullback that’s kind of my position
12:54
right now with cardano i feel like we’re
12:56
probably going to see
12:57
and there’s some reasons for this and
12:59
i’ll show you this here on our trading
13:00
view chart
13:01
i think we’re going to see a little bit
13:03
of a pullback based on what we’re seeing
13:05
around
13:06
just the sentiment and amplification
13:08
numbers i want to jump over to the chart
13:11
and essentially kind of show you where
13:14
sentiment had been rolling
13:15
and where potentially this could fall so
13:18
right now
13:19
what we looked at was this high point
13:21
right here which came in at around 1.62
13:25
that’s the point that we think a lot of
13:26
people uh believe cardona is going to
13:28
get back to in a very short period of
13:30
time
13:31
the fall off down of course for those of
13:32
you who got a chance to buy cardano at a
13:34
dollar there were there it was
13:36
the sentiment actually though held
13:38
pretty strong at 53.29
13:40
and amplification still fairly strong at
13:43
50.17
13:45
these are high numbers compared to some
13:47
of the projects that we’ve seen and done
13:49
here on the show
13:50
then we retested the sentiment analysis
13:53
right here on this small little drop
13:55
which started around
13:56
june 24th and moved over here to
14:00
what was around june 26th so about two
14:03
days
14:04
a little sentiment uh click right there
14:06
and during this and again remember you
14:08
had this upswing right here
14:09
in price but in this particular range we
14:12
had sentiment holding at 60.51 and
14:15
amplification
14:16
moving up significantly to 58.93 so
14:19
that’s essentially what we’ve mapped out
14:21
here
14:22
in our drawing and this shows
14:24
amplification overlaid into where the
14:26
price is ranging right now so it’s
14:28
actually a little bit
14:29
lower which goes back to my point on
14:32
trade the chain i want to jump back to
14:34
that real quickly
14:35
trade the chain is still showing low
14:37
sentiment in the last seven days
14:39
same kind of scenario that we’re seeing
14:41
right here
14:42
in terms of a little bit lower sentiment
14:44
so what we’re seeing here is price
14:46
action that’s
14:47
outside the realm of where amplification
14:51
is going amplification to just explain
14:53
that
14:54
is uh much like any other kind of of uh
14:57
social application that utilizes
15:01
you know the whole purpose that you see
15:03
where this guy tells somebody somebody
15:05
something this guy tells somebody
15:06
something
15:07
and we look at the credibility of those
15:08
who are sharing that information same
15:10
thing works in the stock world so
15:12
what we’re looking at is conversations
15:14
that match up to those keyword
15:16
use cases for cardano alonso and
15:19
about 100 other keywords that’ll line up
15:21
with that particular
15:22
project and then measuring sentiment and
15:25
what its
15:26
potential forecasted amplification could
15:29
be so
15:30
when you look back here there is a zone
15:32
where amplification starts to widen up
15:34
and anytime we see this right here what
15:36
that tells me is that amplification is
15:39
in
15:40
play when it’s really tight like this it
15:43
usually is just a little bit of action
15:45
uh but what you start to look at is the
15:48
credibility of the number of people who
15:49
are going and talking about cardano
15:51
and then what we think is going to
15:53
happen this is again
15:55
right around the july 6 point so and
15:57
here’s july 7th
15:58
which is where we’re trading right now
16:00
price action this is what
16:01
they’re talking about right here the 128
16:03
to 140
16:05
is where i think this could fall and
16:07
this goes back to the story
16:09
that we just did on fx street which is
16:12
uh where the retracement could be
16:14
dropping in before we see
16:16
the actual alignment of this going back
16:19
up
16:19
now here’s the potential so right now if
16:22
you’re buying cardano
16:23
you’re probably in a good position if
16:26
you’re looking to go sideways or
16:27
down that’s where i think we’re going to
16:29
be heading right here
16:31
in a short period of time but right here
16:33
is an opportunity
16:35
this right here if amplification stays
16:37
at current pace
16:39
this is where it could go with some key
16:43
potential people that are really moving
16:45
kind of moving the awareness of the
16:47
projects and i think the other thing
16:48
that will play into this
16:50
is if lex or excuse me if uh charles
16:53
gets on
16:54
these other podcasts you know i mean
16:56
there’s rumor out there with joe rogan
16:58
there’s
16:58
all these kinds of things that a lot of
17:00
times are just that just
17:02
rumor that can help move these things
17:04
but i think we have to go back to the
17:06
basis of what cardano is really trying
17:08
to do and that is
17:09
you got to get alonzo out you have to be
17:11
able to get the project moving
17:13
and it’s got to be happening quickly in
17:15
a sense so that you can maintain
17:17
the steam for the project and get it
17:19
moving into the fall months and
17:21
hopefully see these kind of new moves so
17:22
we could see
17:23
a dollar eighty one high price which i
17:26
anticipate somewhere around july 22nd
17:29
providing that we continue to see the
17:32
amplification layer
17:34
holding for cardano amplification is
17:37
going to change
17:38
just like sentiment by the hour
17:41
by the day and also with key things so
17:44
the more that charles is out there
17:46
really
17:47
propping the program and the project and
17:49
or
17:50
we get major news on where this project
17:54
is going that’s how you’re going to see
17:55
the token move and this is kind of the
17:57
scenario across
17:58
all of cryptocurrency this is the model
18:01
that is working
18:02
uh i know a lot of people are looking at
18:04
uh you know chain level data which is
18:06
great for in some cases it helps
18:09
identify where accumulation is occurring
18:12
we’re also seeing
18:13
a lot of sentiment analysis and then
18:15
amplification which is something we’re
18:17
bringing to the plates is a little bit
18:18
different
18:19
and i think that’s the the
18:20
characteristic that you have to be
18:22
watching at is some of these things
18:23
are starting to prove out showing where
18:26
this stuff is happening
18:28
always the scenario is if somebody or
18:31
something starts to
18:32
impede for instance the elon scenario
18:35
when elon gets involved because of his
18:38
amplification
18:39
or his potential to amplify something
18:41
just like joe rogan
18:42
if he were to get involved on cardano
18:44
and that interview goes bad
18:47
listen that’s exactly the kind of thing
18:49
so you have to be cautious
18:51
as a lead on how those projects can go
18:54
especially on these deep diver
18:56
interviews like with lex and of course
18:58
the lex
18:59
you know interview was not a bad
19:01
interview it was a great interview it
19:02
was just five hours long and there was
19:03
so much to cover
19:04
but the point is is that it could go
19:06
either way and that’s the thing you have
19:08
to be cautious about and
19:10
conscious about in terms of your
19:12
investment strategy so as a reminder
19:13
again this is not investment advice
19:15
but it is investment opinion and of
19:17
course we put a lot of work into both
19:20
data
19:20
and research into a lot of these things
19:22
to hopefully give you guys something to
19:23
work with if you’re over on the podcast
19:25
right now make sure and give some stars
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if you’re on youtube just subscribe
19:28
that’s the number one way you can help
19:30
the channel
19:30
and just as a reminder watch out for
19:32
those spammers in
19:34
our comments it’s a it’s a big problem
19:36
on youtube we continue to tell everybody
19:38
watch the spammers we will never ask you
19:40
for anything we don’t have a whatsapp
19:42
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19:43
so don’t fall for any of those crazy uh
19:46
spam and that goes for any of the
19:48
the channels out there on tech crypto ev
19:51
all this all the major channels that are
19:52
getting spammed
19:54
right now so that’s a big problem if you
19:55
have an idea for a show just hit me up
19:56
on twitter
19:57
at paul barron i’ll catch you next time
19:59
right here on techpath
20:08
you
