Harry Dent Says Greatest Stock Market Crash Coming in Q1 2022
Fed beginning to raise interest rates will promulgate the topping of this market
The economy is in a bubble, and “you will see a 40-50% crash in the first two and a half months,” following that bubble bursting, says Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent and editor of HS Dent Forecast.
Harry Dent: Greatest Stock Market Crash of Our Time is Coming, First Plummet in Q1
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Dec 21, 2021
Harry Dent Says Greatest Stock Market Crash Coming in Q1 2022
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FULL VIDEO TRANSCRIPT
00:02
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hi this is danielle cabone and welcome
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back to stansberryinvestor.com
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all right let’s get to our segment today
01:06
hi this is daniela cambone and welcome
01:08
back to
01:09
stansberryinvestor.com and to our
01:10
outlook 2022 the tipping point our
01:13
series continues with more incredible
01:15
guests and joining me today is a man
01:18
who’s known as being the contrarian’s
01:20
contrarian and he does not come with
01:23
very good news for 2022 saying that we
01:26
will experience the biggest stock market
01:29
crash of our lifetime please welcome
01:31
back to the show harry dent he is the
01:33
founder of hs dan he’s also the editor
01:36
of ahrefs dent forecast harry uh good to
01:38
see you again welcome back
01:40
yeah nice to be back
01:42
we got a lot of ground to cover and you
01:44
know where i’m gonna go first uh you
01:46
don’t come with a lot of good news for
01:48
2022 saying that we will see the biggest
01:51
stock market crash of our lifetime we’re
01:53
going to talk cryptos you also don’t
01:55
have good news for those for the crypto
01:57
space but first the stock market harry
02:00
my question to you is
02:02
look you’ve been calling for this crash
02:04
for for quite a long time in 2021 you
02:06
were looking for it to happen in april
02:08
then in june so i have to start with
02:10
this
02:11
you’ve been wrong on those calls why are
02:13
you certain now
02:14
okay
02:15
it’s as simple as this there we’re in a
02:17
in what i call the orgasmic phase of
02:19
this bubble that’s just been building
02:21
and building people have to realize
02:23
since 2007 and i called that one 20
02:25
years before it happened late 2007 baby
02:28
boomers peaked in their spending we had
02:30
a peak in the stock market in late 2007
02:32
and we went into the first deep
02:34
recession since the early 80s in the
02:36
early 30s okay the great depression and
02:38
that’s when the the federal reserve and
02:40
central bank just went nuts we had
02:43
printed more money in the last year and
02:45
a half or so than all of the printing
02:47
before this and even you know since 2008
02:50
and nine i mean just years and years of
02:52
this so they keep doing exponentially
02:54
more so they’re just desperately keeping
02:56
this bubble going and when you get in
02:58
this phase there’s no way to say oh it’s
03:00
gonna happen this day or this month i
03:02
mean i was able to predict the 2007 top
03:04
because i could precisely determine
03:07
within several months when the baby boom
03:09
was going to peak and momentum was going
03:10
to turn out but this this is just a
03:13
bubble’s going to go until it burst i’m
03:15
now looking literally at more at chart
03:18
patterns and things like that to see
03:21
when this bubble looks like it’s going
03:22
to pop and this looks like one of the
03:24
times right here in december where at
03:26
the top if not that it’ll be early next
03:29
year after that i’m going gonna be
03:31
shocked if we do not see a downturn so
03:34
it’s at the point where to me this is
03:36
such an extreme bubble if you’re hanging
03:39
in there to say well well maybe it goes
03:41
another three or four or five months i’m
03:43
like get out
03:44
what my research does show a hundred
03:47
percent is that when a bubble like this
03:49
burst you’re gonna see 40 to 50 percent
03:52
crash in the first two two and a half
03:54
months and and if you sit and wait for
03:56
that it’ll happen before you’re ready
03:58
and then you’ll panic when that happens
04:00
and then it’ll bounce and then you’ll
04:02
look like a double idiot so this is very
04:04
tricky
04:05
and i think baron rothschild the late
04:07
the richest man of the 1800s in europe
04:09
said what is the secret to my success i
04:12
always got out a bit early okay that’s
04:15
what i say be be on the early side and
04:19
and this is already way later than this
04:22
thing should have gone but the
04:23
governments are exponentially somewhat
04:25
now for the first time with the economy
04:28
only coming back in recent months it was
04:30
declining in the second third quarter
04:32
okay after all that stimulus it was
04:34
declining well it finally came back uh
04:37
with this you know
04:38
recent stimulus okay
04:40
this has put them in a bind they now
04:43
have almost seven percent inflation and
04:45
the next report’s probably going to be
04:46
higher in december we’re going to get
04:47
that january 12th
04:49
and the economy is suddenly gotten
04:51
strong it was weak now so they have to
04:54
tighten i what i’m telling people
04:56
danielle when you have an economy that’s
04:58
now been stimulated for 12 years against
05:01
fundamental demographics against slowing
05:03
even technology all my cycles are
05:05
slowing at this point and most of them
05:07
for years it will not take much to prick
05:10
this bubble that’s what i’m saying so
05:12
just them saying we’re going to have to
05:14
taper and just starting they’re already
05:16
cutting 30 billion a month in in buying
05:19
bonds and they’re supposed to finish
05:21
tapering that and then raise interest
05:23
rates by march you’re going to get a top
05:25
in here by early next year i say it
05:28
looks like it’s happening now that’s all
05:29
but but i cannot i cannot be accurate at
05:32
this stage on it precisely
05:35
so
05:36
and just to go back to the timing i get
05:38
it you know i’ve said the same thing to
05:39
robert kiyosaki
05:41
you know it takes it’s hard to stick
05:43
your neck out with a certain call
05:46
but why do you think the mark was missed
05:48
on your original forecast of april and
05:51
june what happens i think they just they
05:53
just keep pumping it up and the markets
05:56
keep buying i mean at this stage
05:58
the market will only go down when
06:00
something triggers that’s big enough or
06:02
the last person gets in the stock market
06:05
and and
06:06
you know it’s hard to tell which of
06:07
those
06:08
uh but i i think what what typically
06:11
happens danielle and this has been every
06:12
top in this you know boom since the
06:15
early 80s when the stocks markets go up
06:17
for about a decade usually they usually
06:19
get pricked when the interest rates
06:21
inflation starts to rise late in the
06:23
boom and the bond range that you know
06:25
the bond rates go up now the big thing
06:26
right now which is extremely unusual we
06:30
have 6.8 percent inflation and rising
06:32
and the 10-year treasury bond is
06:34
yielding 1.4 percent
06:37
you know that’s like a negative yield of
06:39
six seven percent so
06:40
that i think the treasury bond may what
06:43
may be if it keeps edging up that that
06:45
could be the trigger but but we’re just
06:47
way beyond uh this thing harry let me
06:50
ask you because that that is the concern
06:52
right that when the fed would start
06:54
tightening what impact would that have
06:56
on the stock market but the fed knows
06:58
this right so
07:00
won’t they do everything in their power
07:02
to avoid a stock market correction that
07:04
this is what they’ve been working so
07:06
hard to avoid they’ve been pumping
07:08
pumping pumping
07:09
why would they just put their guard down
07:11
why would they got a number gotta
07:12
remember there’s a lagging everything
07:14
monetary policy lags about eight and now
07:16
it starts but it lags about 18 months in
07:19
its real effect and so they’ve been
07:21
forced to to start to taper off what i’m
07:24
keep telling people you gotta understand
07:26
addictions you gotta understand bubbles
07:27
they’re both the same thing something
07:29
blows up it takes exponentially more
07:31
keeping a bubble or an addiction going
07:34
and all it takes is just just pulling
07:36
back you don’t have to stop the stimulus
07:39
just less stimulus and then no stimulus
07:41
is all it takes at some point so it’s
07:43
just a matter
07:44
and so so now they’re forced to get a
07:46
little more tight well if they’re going
07:48
to decide if they pull back and
07:50
immediately get easing quickly it’s
07:51
going to look like they’re panicking so
07:53
now that they’re in a tightening mode
07:55
slowly it’s going to take them a little
07:57
while to respond and go the other way
07:59
and in that time again remember what i
08:01
said at the beginning two to three
08:03
months every major bubble burst has
08:05
happened within three years and it’s
08:06
been from 42
08:08
to 50 percent in my calculations on this
08:11
one that’s been so stretched is it’s
08:13
going to be 54
08:15
the first crash if that first crash
08:17
happens if they just slip that long
08:19
people will lose confidence in this
08:21
market imagine if the s p dropped you
08:24
know 54
08:26
in two months you think anybody believe
08:28
oh well they’ll just print money again
08:29
it’ll come back you will not see the
08:31
market come back if it crashes that much
08:33
i will almost guarantee you that are
08:35
there certain sectors that will be saved
08:38
or where do you see the ones getting hit
08:39
hardest
08:41
well yeah yeah obviously it’s the small
08:44
caps are already the small caps are
08:45
about if they break 2100 that’s gonna be
08:47
my first signal this really is a top and
08:50
we’re about 50 points from that today
08:52
okay a couple percent uh the small caps
08:55
lead and of course the tech stocks
08:57
follow those would be the ones hit the
08:59
most if you get you know health care and
09:01
defensive nations and and consumer
09:03
staples of course those are going to
09:04
hold up better but in a stock crash like
09:07
this after a major bubble everything
09:10
will go down including utilities it’s
09:12
just those sectors will go down 40 or 50
09:16
and then the leading sectors will go
09:18
down 70 80 90. so so that’s the
09:20
difference there is no safe place to
09:22
hide the only place to hide which was
09:25
proven in 2008 and it wasn’t gold gold
09:27
went down 40 50 in the worst of that
09:30
crash it was the u.s 10 and 30-year
09:33
treasury bonds and the u.s dollar that
09:36
bounced in that crash in late 2008 when
09:39
is that at worst that was the safe haven
09:41
that’s what i’m telling people to do
09:42
getting treasury bonds i’d even wait
09:44
here to let inflation get a little
09:45
higher maybe wait until early january
09:48
then get in these treasury bonds and
09:50
just sit there and whether the crash
09:52
happens now or a couple months from now
09:54
when it does it’s going to come like a
09:56
freight train that’s what history says
09:59
two things i really want to bring up you
10:00
mentioned inflation let’s go there first
10:02
i just had jim records on who thinks
10:04
we’ve already hit peak inflation the
10:06
worst is behind us of course i’ve had
10:08
other experts on who think it’s just
10:09
going to keep uh running uh where do you
10:12
where do you sit with it
10:14
well i’m in between on that one i have
10:16
the best inflation indicator in the
10:18
world workforce growth nobody no
10:20
economist would think about that
10:22
incorporating young people in the
10:24
workforce takes things you know
10:25
investment in computers and trainings
10:27
and offices all this sort of stuff
10:28
that’s the biggest correlated with
10:30
inflation over time inflation has been
10:33
falling since 1980 right with my
10:34
indicator it should be two percent today
10:37
and what’s it at 6.8 we’ll count call
10:40
that 4.8 percent inflation created
10:42
entirely out of the recent stimulus so
10:44
that’s what the stimulus has done
10:46
as soon as we have a slowdown in the
10:48
economy or they stop stimulating i agree
10:50
inflation’s going to fall off we could
10:52
be at peak now or soon would i be i
10:55
guess more like with jim but it’s going
10:57
to take a drop in the economy to stop if
10:59
the economy does not slow down we do not
11:02
have this downturn then inflation is
11:04
likely to edge up at least for a little
11:06
while so but but inflation’s already up
11:09
way more than it should be because of
11:12
stimulus so
11:13
uh and then and the stimulus is no
11:15
longer escalating they’re looking at
11:16
tapering it so i say yeah we’re probably
11:18
near peak inflation and it should go
11:21
down to zero or negative and then when
11:23
it when we come out of this downturn you
11:26
are not going to see inflation over a
11:27
couple percent for the rest of my
11:30
lifetime and most of the people
11:31
listening this almost guaranteed
11:33
workforce growth is going to be damn
11:35
near zero as we go into the future for
11:37
the u.s and in europe in japan and and
11:41
the eastern asian countries developed
11:43
are worse so inflation is gone forever
11:46
stagnation
11:48
well no no the 70s was stagflation
11:50
because the baby boomers were ending the
11:52
workforce you have to remember we
11:54
weren’t printing money in the 70s we
11:56
were running deficits but governments
11:58
are going to run deficits when costs are
11:59
going up and you’re having recessions so
12:01
from the late 60s to the early 80s it
12:04
was an inflationary recessionary economy
12:07
that’s called the the uh the summer
12:10
season okay in in my long-term thing
12:13
that’s what would you expect to happen
12:14
this is not that this is temporary
12:18
inflation that is not going to last past
12:20
as soon as the economy slows down and
12:22
it’s not going to come back when we get
12:24
out of it so you won’t see inflation at
12:26
seven percent a couple years from now
12:28
we’ll know will a recession be triggered
12:31
yeah well again what tends to trigger
12:34
recessions and stock market crashes
12:36
after a really good boom like this is
12:39
that inflation starts rising from over
12:41
capacity and overstimulation all this
12:43
stuff and then that triggers you know
12:45
slowing the economy that triggered stock
12:47
markets to crash and then that builds
12:49
and that’s what and then that washes out
12:52
inflation brings high unemployment lower
12:54
spending and that brings inflation down
12:58
yeah to this point let’s let’s talk
13:00
politics a second here joe manchin um
13:02
you know putting a dent no pun intended
13:05
and uh
13:06
in biden’s uh buildback better plan your
13:08
thoughts there
13:10
yeah well i mean again look at what they
13:14
i’ve got 4.9 trillion in monetary
13:17
standards now they’re talking trillions
13:18
of dollars in infrastructure
13:20
this is the biggest overreaction in
13:23
history they’ve been stimulating now for
13:25
a decade 12 years which would also tell
13:28
you if an economy takes non-stop money
13:30
printing and now endless fiscal stimulus
13:33
just to grow at a couple percent then
13:35
the economy without it would be in a
13:37
recession so that that should be obvious
13:39
to people people don’t think that way
13:41
why has the economy see when we went and
13:44
came out of the you know in late 2008
13:45
early 2009 they printed the first
13:47
trillion
13:48
if that would have just been a normal
13:50
little monetary correction a little
13:52
rebalancing and it hadn’t been a big
13:54
demographic downturn and all that sort
13:56
of stuff we would have come out of it it
13:58
wouldn’t take 12 years of non-stop
14:00
stimulus to keep a dead
14:03
name dead economy going that’s what
14:05
we’ve been living in a dead economy
14:08
when we have this recession we’ll wipe
14:10
out all the excess money and all the
14:12
excess debt that’s what recessions do
14:14
make everything more productive and by
14:17
the time we get out of this recession we
14:19
will have fundamental uptrends again
14:21
because the millennial generation is
14:22
going to have their boom from 2024 to
14:26
2037 something i’ve been predicting
14:28
forever that’s right in the demographics
14:30
that’s not something that changes so we
14:33
have to clear this out otherwise we’re
14:35
dooming the baby boomers are dooming the
14:37
millennials with our debt bubble and our
14:40
financial asset bubbles which are all
14:42
have to get washed out because they’re
14:44
not real
14:46
in your forecast um
14:49
how much is the new variant weighing on
14:52
uh the stock market correction did you
14:54
calculate that into your forecast here
14:57
well again that’s another short-term
14:58
thing just like coba yes that i’d say
15:00
that’s one of the triggers that that’s
15:03
that’s you know hurting this endless
15:05
stock market advancing with printing
15:07
ever more money okay but it’s also
15:09
the government the fed sees this and
15:11
says oh my god we got through coven now
15:13
we got this new variant so that’s you
15:15
know that’s what’s keeping them from
15:16
saying well we were going to taper but
15:18
you know they’re going to keep back
15:20
pedaling here but but again i’m just
15:22
waiting for that first crash the only
15:24
thing you can do if that first crash i
15:27
say will be so violent that that people
15:30
will finally get what they’ve already
15:32
thought in the back of their head oh you
15:34
really can’t live on just printing money
15:37
we’ve been living on printed money since
15:39
late 2007 when we went to 2008 downturn
15:43
why for very good reason because the
15:45
biggest generation of history finally
15:47
peaked in spending and the end the down
15:49
and the trends have been low since we
15:52
have been living a hundred and twenty
15:54
percent on money going in the economy
15:57
ultra low interest rate rates a third
16:00
ten year treasury bond of one point four
16:02
percent with seven percent inflation you
16:04
think we would have that without all
16:06
this manipulation and money bring this
16:07
is a totally artificial economy which
16:10
means when it blows it’s going to blow
16:12
even harder it’s not even real i
16:14
understand you don’t want to pin
16:15
yourself to another month
16:17
but if i had to say when does the first
16:20
tranche of the crash happen is it q1 q2
16:22
q3 any indication i i think q1 is that i
16:26
think between now and january uh is the
16:29
most likely time for the i think it may
16:31
have peaked in november 22nd okay
16:33
because i’ve been tracing stock markets
16:35
different sectors here and around the
16:37
world you know almost everything is
16:39
already peaked except for the nasdaq and
16:41
the s p that’s the only thing small caps
16:43
are down 13 14
16:45
a lot of countries have been down for
16:47
months
16:48
emerging markets have been down for over
16:50
a year the bond market peaked a year and
16:52
a half again the corporate bond market
16:54
these are all leading indicators that
16:56
say we’re building towards a crash and
16:58
like i say
16:59
it it’s hard to predict when does happen
17:01
it’s possible november 22nd was the peak
17:04
we could also get a peak sometime in the
17:06
first quarter i’d be extremely surprised
17:08
at this point if we don’t peak and get
17:10
that first crash starting in the first
17:13
quarter if it goes past then i’m just
17:15
gonna be like i don’t know what to say i
17:17
mean literally there’s a point where you
17:18
have to say i don’t know what to say
17:19
because this has never happened no
17:22
governments have never fought
17:24
a bubble like this or boom which they
17:27
created this bubble would not have
17:28
happened without government the 2007
17:31
2000 2007 bubbles those were more
17:33
natural this is totally artificial so
17:37
you have that
17:38
you would retire if the crash didn’t
17:40
happen i know i i yeah i am considering
17:43
uh retiring i wouldn’t retire from my
17:45
research but i would consider saying you
17:47
know i don’t know if i’m going to write
17:48
a newsletter anymore you know i’d have
17:50
to go at least a year if i did that but
17:52
yeah i have considered that
17:54
well i’ve said if we can go all the way
17:56
through the end of 2022 and not see this
17:59
crash start then i would say yes i don’t
18:02
have much to say about the economy
18:03
anymore it’s still a bubble still got to
18:05
blow but then i have like i have no idea
18:07
if it can last that long i say the odds
18:10
are 90 it does not make it that long
18:12
without this first crash setting let’s
18:15
talk more bad news before there are
18:17
there is good news coming from harry
18:18
dent so stay tuned folks hold on oh yeah
18:20
hold on hold on we’ll get there
18:22
but first cryptos
18:23
you actually think cryptos you know
18:26
should we have the stock market crash
18:27
will get hit even harder
18:30
than the stocks
18:31
yes and and let me tell you something
18:32
that’s a good sign you know what i’m
18:35
parroting the cryptos on today on the
18:37
dot-coms amazon came at the end of that
18:40
bubble that wasn’t the bubble the
18:42
amazon.com bubble it was an internet it
18:44
was a broad internet and tech bubble
18:46
the dot-coms came in the last few years
18:49
and started to roar just like the
18:50
cryptos here the end of this bubble and
18:53
then burst amazon went down 95 and the
18:57
internet index went down 96
18:59
i call it the baby bubble new sectors
19:02
emerge the smart people say oh this is
19:05
the next big thing and i am on that
19:06
train i am a crypto i call it pc’s
19:10
internet crypto the three big stages of
19:13
technology this is the next big thing
19:16
but i’ve studied these big things they
19:18
have a baby bubble the most extreme
19:20
crash then they have the daddy bubble
19:23
okay it lasts much longer so i’m saying
19:25
crypto will crash more than the stock
19:27
market 95 96 something like that stock
19:31
market 87
19:33
and guess what will be the best buy out
19:35
of this i’m not going to buy a t and t
19:37
or ibm i’m gonna buy freaking bitcoin
19:40
and ethereum and cardano whoever solana
19:42
whoever survives this thing you know
19:44
there’s nine thousand coins some people
19:45
say there’s 14 this is crazy
19:48
typical of a baby bug you would step in
19:51
and buy oh
19:52
this i’d say it’d be the buy of a
19:55
lifetime not just to buy this next crash
19:57
which will be the largest in our
19:58
lifetime if i’m right but to
20:00
particularly buy the crypto sector
20:03
because it is the leading edge better
20:05
than biotech better than other sectors
20:06
and that’s all part of it too and
20:08
nanotechnology buy the crypto sector
20:11
will be the best buy
20:13
roaring in how long should a crash
20:15
happen on the cryptos yeah okay so so
20:18
they’ll probably be the first to bottom
20:20
maybe you know 2021 and i mean 22 it’s a
20:23
late 22 instead of 23 for most stock and
20:26
i say the next boom will come from 2024
20:30
to
20:32
2036.37 and that’s right about
20:35
parallel to 20-year lag uh the cryptos
20:38
may go a little longer than that but it
20:40
i call the crypto movement a 20-year lag
20:42
on the internet and the internet did the
20:44
same thing remember baby bubble crashed
20:46
96
20:48
and then internet went to 30 went up 600
20:51
times up 600 times in 12 years that’s
20:54
what i’m talking about so that’s bullish
20:57
you couldn’t get more bullish than that
20:59
help me understand this from an
21:00
economist point of view okay really help
21:02
me here because i’ve heard this
21:03
narrative before oh the comparisons to
21:06
dot com but they’re not built the same
21:09
way so why is there this conviction that
21:12
the crypto will have the same historical
21:15
patterns as the dot-com okay okay what
21:18
what the internet did before in the
21:20
dot-com it allowed reta it allowed um
21:23
information to become mass uh you know
21:26
accessible and it allowed retail to
21:28
expand online okay
21:30
what what crypto does what the next boom
21:32
is is finance crypto is the digitization
21:36
here’s the best definition in one
21:38
sentence the digitization of all
21:41
financial assets and money
21:44
that’s what this rebels so the reason
21:46
that it’s the next big thing if it was
21:48
just internet 2 it wouldn’t be another
21:51
big thing it is going to do what
21:53
internet did for everything else for the
21:55
whole my financial assets and money and
21:57
wealth sector so that’s what’s different
22:00
about you got to be different to be the
22:02
next big thing but you have to build on
22:03
the last big thing so that’s why i i’ve
22:06
been sold on crypto from the beginning
22:08
once i heard a guy spoke at one of our
22:10
conferences marcusco and he gave that
22:13
definition and then i got it yeah i like
22:16
that’s a big deal yeah i i didn’t think
22:19
you’d buy or ever buy into crypto so i’m
22:21
interested to hear that
22:22
oh absolutely i i’m saying that is the
22:26
number one sector i’m gonna be saying
22:28
whatever survive and you have to look at
22:30
what survives in a shakeout okay
22:32
general motors basically came out of
22:35
that shakeout and kicked ford’s ass who
22:36
came in leading so something else made
22:38
but you see who shakes out and does the
22:41
best and holds up the best and starts to
22:43
lead the crypto sector should be the
22:45
number one high return sector to invest
22:48
in coming out of this and guess what
22:50
that’s the opposite of what you’d expect
22:52
that it crashes the hardest you buy
22:54
whatever crashes the hardest that still
22:56
has the fundamentals because again i’m
22:58
putting it on a 20-year lag to the
23:01
internet stock so if you’d have bought
23:02
ammo i’m saying buying crypto in 2023
23:06
would be like buying amazon for six
23:09
dollars a share in late 2021 in the last
23:13
crash
23:14
after going down 95 percent that’s what
23:17
i’m saying it’s that cliff went on
23:19
that’s also bearish on bitcoin on last
23:22
week and i think it’s you know
23:23
interesting if we if we if we listen to
23:25
you guys for those who have bitcoin
23:27
holdings or ethereum whatever they’re
23:29
probably looking or listening to this
23:30
now thinking you know what do i do here
23:32
do i get out now and then come back in
23:35
but absolutely okay if something you
23:38
know stock markets and financial
23:40
20 corrections happen all the time in
23:42
bull markets occasionally put 50 if you
23:45
have a cobit or something this is not
23:47
that you do not sit through a 96
23:50
correction okay if you if you do if
23:52
you’re listening to me if you see what i
23:53
see you wouldn’t even think of sitting
23:55
this out you do get out now and i think
23:58
that i thought bitcoin would have one
23:59
more run to 100 grand at the end of this
24:01
year very clear four year cycle by the
24:03
way in crypto 2013 17 and 21. we’re at
24:07
the end of the year i say bitcoin now
24:09
peaked at 68 000. it’s still holding up
24:12
pretty good i would be getting out of
24:14
bitcoin and looking to buy my target for
24:16
bitcoin and some things may be better
24:19
four to seven thousand you see that type
24:21
of number a couple years from now that’s
24:23
when you buy back
24:25
i do not don’t lose 90 of your profits
24:29
take them
24:30
if you all you got to do is get out
24:32
about six months and see if i’m right
24:34
and if i am you’re gonna be very very
24:36
glad you sold out and you’re gonna buy
24:37
so cheap you’re gonna kiss the ground
24:40
let me ask you this let’s get to some
24:42
good news some good news you say by 2024
24:45
we should be out of this so this is the
24:47
opportunity you speak of bitcoin by the
24:49
really um diluted sectors here so we we
24:52
come out of this
24:54
there is
24:56
a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow
24:58
for you
24:59
well yeah i mean what did i say i mean
25:02
amazon went i mean
25:03
the internet stocks went up 600 times
25:05
after they bought them in the last crash
25:07
so in those sectors it’s a lot but i
25:09
mean just the stock market now the thing
25:11
is i do not this is something i’ve been
25:13
saying back for decades
25:16
after this baby boom boom peeks and the
25:18
millennials come along the millennials
25:20
have a shorter boom and it only takes us
25:23
back to where we were at the peak of the
25:24
baby boom in the demographic sector
25:26
which is the most fundamental thing so
25:28
this is not going to go you know i i
25:30
think stocks would be doing the best i
25:33
see is that stocks go back to these
25:35
recent highs by 2037. but if you buy
25:38
them when they’re down at 5 000 and it
25:40
goes back to 30 or 40 000 then that’s
25:42
incredible that’s an incredible return
25:45
but it won’t be as strong a boom as the
25:47
80s and 90s was because this
25:49
generation’s not as big now where you
25:51
will get that is you could go to
25:54
southeast asia asian india
25:56
china led this last boom in asia
25:58
southeast asia and india because china’s
26:01
already peaked in their demographics
26:03
those if you want to get astounding
26:05
returns
26:06
crypto southeast asia and india those
26:08
are the three sectors to be in let’s
26:10
let’s wrap with this i need to ask you
26:12
about you mentioned gold briefly before
26:14
why
26:17
will gold not weather the storm for you
26:19
harry okay gold
26:22
correlates with inflation
26:24
okay
26:25
gold had its best boom ever
26:28
in
26:28
the 60s late 60s and 70s and then
26:31
crashed big time after that okay now it
26:34
came back in this recent period because
26:37
we’ve never seen money printing like
26:38
gold likes to see money printing because
26:40
gold thinks money printing equals
26:42
inflation well we’re getting a little
26:44
inflation at the end of this boom here
26:45
but we haven’t gotten that effect what
26:47
what money printing did was inflate
26:49
financial assets and guess what’s in
26:51
financial assets gold gold had a bubble
26:54
just as big as the stock market it just
26:56
peaked in 2011 instead of 2007 or now
27:00
okay so gold typically will do well if
27:04
i’m right we start to see weakness
27:05
they’re gonna say ah the economy’s
27:07
leaking again they’re gonna print more
27:08
money but when things go down like in
27:10
2008 gold went up in the early stages of
27:13
the 2008 crash and then went down 50
27:17
in in the second half of 2008 when it
27:19
went hit back so gold is not the safe
27:22
haven because we’re going into a
27:24
deflationary
27:25
couple of years not inflation and that’s
27:27
when gold does not be the safe haven so
27:31
gold is not the place to be but i tell
27:32
you if you have a little in your
27:33
portfolio diverse life gold will hold up
27:36
better than most commodities because of
27:38
that
27:38
that at least that image that it’s
27:40
somehow a safe haven
27:42
we have so many different viewpoints on
27:44
this show that’s why i love it um
27:47
okay bring it home for us harry for all
27:49
the folks watching like i said it’s an
27:50
outlook 2022. um you’ve made your case
27:53
for 2022. to get more specific
27:56
yeah i see 2022 from the highest point
27:58
in the stock market early on if not
28:00
already peaking here in late december
28:02
from top the highest point to the lowest
28:04
point will be the worst single year for
28:07
the stock market in all of history now
28:10
that the crash will not be quite as bad
28:12
as 89 but that next year since we’ve
28:15
held this back so long and bubbled it up
28:17
and pushed it so far when it finally
28:19
breaks i think 2022 will be the worst
28:21
single year so
28:23
i just say give me give me like three to
28:25
six months okay
28:27
just just give up a little gains now the
28:29
market’s so stretched and they’re going
28:30
to have to taper you know the market’s
28:32
not going to do great when they’re
28:33
tapering
28:34
just
28:35
be out be safe for several months and if
28:38
it doesn’t start by then okay you can
28:39
jump back in but i’m just telling you if
28:41
you miss this it will happen so fast you
28:44
will not be able to react enough and
28:46
you’ll react just at the wrong point
28:48
when it’s bottoming and then it’ll get
28:50
back past the gains and then it’ll go
28:52
down for a couple years that’s the
28:53
scenario crash 50 or so
28:56
retrace about 40 to 50 of that and then
28:58
go dribble down for a couple years that
29:01
was the same thing happened in the great
29:02
depression and the 2000 to 2002 crash
29:06
led by technology like this
29:08
harry dan thank you so much why do i
29:10
have a feeling that at the holiday
29:12
parties you are the life of it
29:15
i have that as long as i don’t talk
29:17
about the crash i am yeah yeah you’re
29:19
that guy but hey look free newsletter at
29:21
hsn.com
29:23
just listen to me for the next three to
29:24
six months you know if you know you know
29:27
if things don’t pan out at all then you
29:28
can listen to somebody else but i i say
29:30
i’m the guy to listen to here i’m just
29:31
sorry i am and i was introduced to like
29:34
you said at a conference as the
29:35
contrarians contrarian because i was at
29:38
a gold bug conference where everybody
29:40
thinks they’re contrary and i was
29:41
contrary to them
29:43
hilarious harry dent happy holidays
29:45
happy new year come back on soon okay
29:48
okay
29:49
i’ll come find you actually i’ll come
29:50
back
29:52
and thank you all for watching we’ll
29:53
have much more for you so keep staying
29:56
tuned to our outlook 2022 only here on
29:59
stansberryinvestor.com and sign up for
30:00
premiere access at
30:02
danielacamboni.com that’s it for me
30:04
thanks for watching
30:08
[Music]
30:16
[Music]
30:27
you