stock market crash 2022

Harry Dent Says Greatest Stock Market Crash Coming in Q1 2022

Harry Dent Says Greatest Stock Market Crash Coming in Q1 2022

Fed beginning to raise interest rates will promulgate the topping of this market

The economy is in a bubble, and “you will see a 40-50% crash in the first two and a half months,” following that bubble bursting, says Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent and editor of HS Dent Forecast.

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Harry Dent: Greatest Stock Market Crash of Our Time is Coming, First Plummet in Q1

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Dec 21, 2021

 

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The economy is in a bubble, and “you will see a 40-50% crash in the first two and a half months,” following that bubble bursting, says Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent and editor of HS Dent Forecast. The initiation of the Fed beginning to raise interest rates will promulgate the topping of this market, he tells our Daniela Cambone in this edition of Outlook 2022: The Tipping Point. Dent believes we are near peak inflation levels, and says, “as soon as we come out of this downturn, you will not see inflation over a couple percent for the rest of my lifetime.” Dent examines all of the leading indicators of what he calls building towards a crash, and “would be extremely surprised if we don’t get that first crash starting in Q1.”

Harry Dent Says Greatest Stock Market Crash Coming in Q1 2022

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FULL VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

 
00:02
[Music]
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hi this is danielle cabone and welcome
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all right let’s get to our segment today
01:06
hi this is daniela cambone and welcome
01:08
back to
01:09
stansberryinvestor.com and to our
01:10
outlook 2022 the tipping point our
01:13
series continues with more incredible
01:15
guests and joining me today is a man
01:18
who’s known as being the contrarian’s
01:20
contrarian and he does not come with
01:23
very good news for 2022 saying that we
01:26
will experience the biggest stock market
01:29
crash of our lifetime please welcome
01:31
back to the show harry dent he is the
01:33
founder of hs dan he’s also the editor
01:36
of ahrefs dent forecast harry uh good to
01:38
see you again welcome back
01:40
yeah nice to be back
01:42
we got a lot of ground to cover and you
01:44
know where i’m gonna go first uh you
01:46
don’t come with a lot of good news for
01:48
2022 saying that we will see the biggest
01:51
stock market crash of our lifetime we’re
01:53
going to talk cryptos you also don’t
01:55
have good news for those for the crypto
01:57
space but first the stock market harry
02:00
my question to you is
02:02
look you’ve been calling for this crash
02:04
for for quite a long time in 2021 you
02:06
were looking for it to happen in april
02:08
then in june so i have to start with
02:10
this
02:11
you’ve been wrong on those calls why are
02:13
you certain now
02:14
okay
02:15
it’s as simple as this there we’re in a
02:17
in what i call the orgasmic phase of
02:19
this bubble that’s just been building
02:21
and building people have to realize
02:23
since 2007 and i called that one 20
02:25
years before it happened late 2007 baby
02:28
boomers peaked in their spending we had
02:30
a peak in the stock market in late 2007
02:32
and we went into the first deep
02:34
recession since the early 80s in the
02:36
early 30s okay the great depression and
02:38
that’s when the the federal reserve and
02:40
central bank just went nuts we had
02:43
printed more money in the last year and
02:45
a half or so than all of the printing
02:47
before this and even you know since 2008
02:50
and nine i mean just years and years of
02:52
this so they keep doing exponentially
02:54
more so they’re just desperately keeping
02:56
this bubble going and when you get in
02:58
this phase there’s no way to say oh it’s
03:00
gonna happen this day or this month i
03:02
mean i was able to predict the 2007 top
03:04
because i could precisely determine
03:07
within several months when the baby boom
03:09
was going to peak and momentum was going
03:10
to turn out but this this is just a
03:13
bubble’s going to go until it burst i’m
03:15
now looking literally at more at chart
03:18
patterns and things like that to see
03:21
when this bubble looks like it’s going
03:22
to pop and this looks like one of the
03:24
times right here in december where at
03:26
the top if not that it’ll be early next
03:29
year after that i’m going gonna be
03:31
shocked if we do not see a downturn so
03:34
it’s at the point where to me this is
03:36
such an extreme bubble if you’re hanging
03:39
in there to say well well maybe it goes
03:41
another three or four or five months i’m
03:43
like get out
03:44
what my research does show a hundred
03:47
percent is that when a bubble like this
03:49
burst you’re gonna see 40 to 50 percent
03:52
crash in the first two two and a half
03:54
months and and if you sit and wait for
03:56
that it’ll happen before you’re ready
03:58
and then you’ll panic when that happens
04:00
and then it’ll bounce and then you’ll
04:02
look like a double idiot so this is very
04:04
tricky
04:05
and i think baron rothschild the late
04:07
the richest man of the 1800s in europe
04:09
said what is the secret to my success i
04:12
always got out a bit early okay that’s
04:15
what i say be be on the early side and
04:19
and this is already way later than this
04:22
thing should have gone but the
04:23
governments are exponentially somewhat
04:25
now for the first time with the economy
04:28
only coming back in recent months it was
04:30
declining in the second third quarter
04:32
okay after all that stimulus it was
04:34
declining well it finally came back uh
04:37
with this you know
04:38
recent stimulus okay
04:40
this has put them in a bind they now
04:43
have almost seven percent inflation and
04:45
the next report’s probably going to be
04:46
higher in december we’re going to get
04:47
that january 12th
04:49
and the economy is suddenly gotten
04:51
strong it was weak now so they have to
04:54
tighten i what i’m telling people
04:56
danielle when you have an economy that’s
04:58
now been stimulated for 12 years against
05:01
fundamental demographics against slowing
05:03
even technology all my cycles are
05:05
slowing at this point and most of them
05:07
for years it will not take much to prick
05:10
this bubble that’s what i’m saying so
05:12
just them saying we’re going to have to
05:14
taper and just starting they’re already
05:16
cutting 30 billion a month in in buying
05:19
bonds and they’re supposed to finish
05:21
tapering that and then raise interest
05:23
rates by march you’re going to get a top
05:25
in here by early next year i say it
05:28
looks like it’s happening now that’s all
05:29
but but i cannot i cannot be accurate at
05:32
this stage on it precisely
05:35
so
05:36
and just to go back to the timing i get
05:38
it you know i’ve said the same thing to
05:39
robert kiyosaki
05:41
you know it takes it’s hard to stick
05:43
your neck out with a certain call
05:46
but why do you think the mark was missed
05:48
on your original forecast of april and
05:51
june what happens i think they just they
05:53
just keep pumping it up and the markets
05:56
keep buying i mean at this stage
05:58
the market will only go down when
06:00
something triggers that’s big enough or
06:02
the last person gets in the stock market
06:05
and and
06:06
you know it’s hard to tell which of
06:07
those
06:08
uh but i i think what what typically
06:11
happens danielle and this has been every
06:12
top in this you know boom since the
06:15
early 80s when the stocks markets go up
06:17
for about a decade usually they usually
06:19
get pricked when the interest rates
06:21
inflation starts to rise late in the
06:23
boom and the bond range that you know
06:25
the bond rates go up now the big thing
06:26
right now which is extremely unusual we
06:30
have 6.8 percent inflation and rising
06:32
and the 10-year treasury bond is
06:34
yielding 1.4 percent
06:37
you know that’s like a negative yield of
06:39
six seven percent so
06:40
that i think the treasury bond may what
06:43
may be if it keeps edging up that that
06:45
could be the trigger but but we’re just
06:47
way beyond uh this thing harry let me
06:50
ask you because that that is the concern
06:52
right that when the fed would start
06:54
tightening what impact would that have
06:56
on the stock market but the fed knows
06:58
this right so
07:00
won’t they do everything in their power
07:02
to avoid a stock market correction that
07:04
this is what they’ve been working so
07:06
hard to avoid they’ve been pumping
07:08
pumping pumping
07:09
why would they just put their guard down
07:11
why would they got a number gotta
07:12
remember there’s a lagging everything
07:14
monetary policy lags about eight and now
07:16
it starts but it lags about 18 months in
07:19
its real effect and so they’ve been
07:21
forced to to start to taper off what i’m
07:24
keep telling people you gotta understand
07:26
addictions you gotta understand bubbles
07:27
they’re both the same thing something
07:29
blows up it takes exponentially more
07:31
keeping a bubble or an addiction going
07:34
and all it takes is just just pulling
07:36
back you don’t have to stop the stimulus
07:39
just less stimulus and then no stimulus
07:41
is all it takes at some point so it’s
07:43
just a matter
07:44
and so so now they’re forced to get a
07:46
little more tight well if they’re going
07:48
to decide if they pull back and
07:50
immediately get easing quickly it’s
07:51
going to look like they’re panicking so
07:53
now that they’re in a tightening mode
07:55
slowly it’s going to take them a little
07:57
while to respond and go the other way
07:59
and in that time again remember what i
08:01
said at the beginning two to three
08:03
months every major bubble burst has
08:05
happened within three years and it’s
08:06
been from 42
08:08
to 50 percent in my calculations on this
08:11
one that’s been so stretched is it’s
08:13
going to be 54
08:15
the first crash if that first crash
08:17
happens if they just slip that long
08:19
people will lose confidence in this
08:21
market imagine if the s p dropped you
08:24
know 54
08:26
in two months you think anybody believe
08:28
oh well they’ll just print money again
08:29
it’ll come back you will not see the
08:31
market come back if it crashes that much
08:33
i will almost guarantee you that are
08:35
there certain sectors that will be saved
08:38
or where do you see the ones getting hit
08:39
hardest
08:41
well yeah yeah obviously it’s the small
08:44
caps are already the small caps are
08:45
about if they break 2100 that’s gonna be
08:47
my first signal this really is a top and
08:50
we’re about 50 points from that today
08:52
okay a couple percent uh the small caps
08:55
lead and of course the tech stocks
08:57
follow those would be the ones hit the
08:59
most if you get you know health care and
09:01
defensive nations and and consumer
09:03
staples of course those are going to
09:04
hold up better but in a stock crash like
09:07
this after a major bubble everything
09:10
will go down including utilities it’s
09:12
just those sectors will go down 40 or 50
09:16
and then the leading sectors will go
09:18
down 70 80 90. so so that’s the
09:20
difference there is no safe place to
09:22
hide the only place to hide which was
09:25
proven in 2008 and it wasn’t gold gold
09:27
went down 40 50 in the worst of that
09:30
crash it was the u.s 10 and 30-year
09:33
treasury bonds and the u.s dollar that
09:36
bounced in that crash in late 2008 when
09:39
is that at worst that was the safe haven
09:41
that’s what i’m telling people to do
09:42
getting treasury bonds i’d even wait
09:44
here to let inflation get a little
09:45
higher maybe wait until early january
09:48
then get in these treasury bonds and
09:50
just sit there and whether the crash
09:52
happens now or a couple months from now
09:54
when it does it’s going to come like a
09:56
freight train that’s what history says
09:59
two things i really want to bring up you
10:00
mentioned inflation let’s go there first
10:02
i just had jim records on who thinks
10:04
we’ve already hit peak inflation the
10:06
worst is behind us of course i’ve had
10:08
other experts on who think it’s just
10:09
going to keep uh running uh where do you
10:12
where do you sit with it
10:14
well i’m in between on that one i have
10:16
the best inflation indicator in the
10:18
world workforce growth nobody no
10:20
economist would think about that
10:22
incorporating young people in the
10:24
workforce takes things you know
10:25
investment in computers and trainings
10:27
and offices all this sort of stuff
10:28
that’s the biggest correlated with
10:30
inflation over time inflation has been
10:33
falling since 1980 right with my
10:34
indicator it should be two percent today
10:37
and what’s it at 6.8 we’ll count call
10:40
that 4.8 percent inflation created
10:42
entirely out of the recent stimulus so
10:44
that’s what the stimulus has done
10:46
as soon as we have a slowdown in the
10:48
economy or they stop stimulating i agree
10:50
inflation’s going to fall off we could
10:52
be at peak now or soon would i be i
10:55
guess more like with jim but it’s going
10:57
to take a drop in the economy to stop if
10:59
the economy does not slow down we do not
11:02
have this downturn then inflation is
11:04
likely to edge up at least for a little
11:06
while so but but inflation’s already up
11:09
way more than it should be because of
11:12
stimulus so
11:13
uh and then and the stimulus is no
11:15
longer escalating they’re looking at
11:16
tapering it so i say yeah we’re probably
11:18
near peak inflation and it should go
11:21
down to zero or negative and then when
11:23
it when we come out of this downturn you
11:26
are not going to see inflation over a
11:27
couple percent for the rest of my
11:30
lifetime and most of the people
11:31
listening this almost guaranteed
11:33
workforce growth is going to be damn
11:35
near zero as we go into the future for
11:37
the u.s and in europe in japan and and
11:41
the eastern asian countries developed
11:43
are worse so inflation is gone forever
11:46
stagnation
11:48
well no no the 70s was stagflation
11:50
because the baby boomers were ending the
11:52
workforce you have to remember we
11:54
weren’t printing money in the 70s we
11:56
were running deficits but governments
11:58
are going to run deficits when costs are
11:59
going up and you’re having recessions so
12:01
from the late 60s to the early 80s it
12:04
was an inflationary recessionary economy
12:07
that’s called the the uh the summer
12:10
season okay in in my long-term thing
12:13
that’s what would you expect to happen
12:14
this is not that this is temporary
12:18
inflation that is not going to last past
12:20
as soon as the economy slows down and
12:22
it’s not going to come back when we get
12:24
out of it so you won’t see inflation at
12:26
seven percent a couple years from now
12:28
we’ll know will a recession be triggered
12:31
yeah well again what tends to trigger
12:34
recessions and stock market crashes
12:36
after a really good boom like this is
12:39
that inflation starts rising from over
12:41
capacity and overstimulation all this
12:43
stuff and then that triggers you know
12:45
slowing the economy that triggered stock
12:47
markets to crash and then that builds
12:49
and that’s what and then that washes out
12:52
inflation brings high unemployment lower
12:54
spending and that brings inflation down
12:58
yeah to this point let’s let’s talk
13:00
politics a second here joe manchin um
13:02
you know putting a dent no pun intended
13:05
and uh
13:06
in biden’s uh buildback better plan your
13:08
thoughts there
13:10
yeah well i mean again look at what they
13:14
i’ve got 4.9 trillion in monetary
13:17
standards now they’re talking trillions
13:18
of dollars in infrastructure
13:20
this is the biggest overreaction in
13:23
history they’ve been stimulating now for
13:25
a decade 12 years which would also tell
13:28
you if an economy takes non-stop money
13:30
printing and now endless fiscal stimulus
13:33
just to grow at a couple percent then
13:35
the economy without it would be in a
13:37
recession so that that should be obvious
13:39
to people people don’t think that way
13:41
why has the economy see when we went and
13:44
came out of the you know in late 2008
13:45
early 2009 they printed the first
13:47
trillion
13:48
if that would have just been a normal
13:50
little monetary correction a little
13:52
rebalancing and it hadn’t been a big
13:54
demographic downturn and all that sort
13:56
of stuff we would have come out of it it
13:58
wouldn’t take 12 years of non-stop
14:00
stimulus to keep a dead
14:03
name dead economy going that’s what
14:05
we’ve been living in a dead economy
14:08
when we have this recession we’ll wipe
14:10
out all the excess money and all the
14:12
excess debt that’s what recessions do
14:14
make everything more productive and by
14:17
the time we get out of this recession we
14:19
will have fundamental uptrends again
14:21
because the millennial generation is
14:22
going to have their boom from 2024 to
14:26
2037 something i’ve been predicting
14:28
forever that’s right in the demographics
14:30
that’s not something that changes so we
14:33
have to clear this out otherwise we’re
14:35
dooming the baby boomers are dooming the
14:37
millennials with our debt bubble and our
14:40
financial asset bubbles which are all
14:42
have to get washed out because they’re
14:44
not real
14:46
in your forecast um
14:49
how much is the new variant weighing on
14:52
uh the stock market correction did you
14:54
calculate that into your forecast here
14:57
well again that’s another short-term
14:58
thing just like coba yes that i’d say
15:00
that’s one of the triggers that that’s
15:03
that’s you know hurting this endless
15:05
stock market advancing with printing
15:07
ever more money okay but it’s also
15:09
the government the fed sees this and
15:11
says oh my god we got through coven now
15:13
we got this new variant so that’s you
15:15
know that’s what’s keeping them from
15:16
saying well we were going to taper but
15:18
you know they’re going to keep back
15:20
pedaling here but but again i’m just
15:22
waiting for that first crash the only
15:24
thing you can do if that first crash i
15:27
say will be so violent that that people
15:30
will finally get what they’ve already
15:32
thought in the back of their head oh you
15:34
really can’t live on just printing money
15:37
we’ve been living on printed money since
15:39
late 2007 when we went to 2008 downturn
15:43
why for very good reason because the
15:45
biggest generation of history finally
15:47
peaked in spending and the end the down
15:49
and the trends have been low since we
15:52
have been living a hundred and twenty
15:54
percent on money going in the economy
15:57
ultra low interest rate rates a third
16:00
ten year treasury bond of one point four
16:02
percent with seven percent inflation you
16:04
think we would have that without all
16:06
this manipulation and money bring this
16:07
is a totally artificial economy which
16:10
means when it blows it’s going to blow
16:12
even harder it’s not even real i
16:14
understand you don’t want to pin
16:15
yourself to another month
16:17
but if i had to say when does the first
16:20
tranche of the crash happen is it q1 q2
16:22
q3 any indication i i think q1 is that i
16:26
think between now and january uh is the
16:29
most likely time for the i think it may
16:31
have peaked in november 22nd okay
16:33
because i’ve been tracing stock markets
16:35
different sectors here and around the
16:37
world you know almost everything is
16:39
already peaked except for the nasdaq and
16:41
the s p that’s the only thing small caps
16:43
are down 13 14
16:45
a lot of countries have been down for
16:47
months
16:48
emerging markets have been down for over
16:50
a year the bond market peaked a year and
16:52
a half again the corporate bond market
16:54
these are all leading indicators that
16:56
say we’re building towards a crash and
16:58
like i say
16:59
it it’s hard to predict when does happen
17:01
it’s possible november 22nd was the peak
17:04
we could also get a peak sometime in the
17:06
first quarter i’d be extremely surprised
17:08
at this point if we don’t peak and get
17:10
that first crash starting in the first
17:13
quarter if it goes past then i’m just
17:15
gonna be like i don’t know what to say i
17:17
mean literally there’s a point where you
17:18
have to say i don’t know what to say
17:19
because this has never happened no
17:22
governments have never fought
17:24
a bubble like this or boom which they
17:27
created this bubble would not have
17:28
happened without government the 2007
17:31
2000 2007 bubbles those were more
17:33
natural this is totally artificial so
17:37
you have that
17:38
you would retire if the crash didn’t
17:40
happen i know i i yeah i am considering
17:43
uh retiring i wouldn’t retire from my
17:45
research but i would consider saying you
17:47
know i don’t know if i’m going to write
17:48
a newsletter anymore you know i’d have
17:50
to go at least a year if i did that but
17:52
yeah i have considered that
17:54
well i’ve said if we can go all the way
17:56
through the end of 2022 and not see this
17:59
crash start then i would say yes i don’t
18:02
have much to say about the economy
18:03
anymore it’s still a bubble still got to
18:05
blow but then i have like i have no idea
18:07
if it can last that long i say the odds
18:10
are 90 it does not make it that long
18:12
without this first crash setting let’s
18:15
talk more bad news before there are
18:17
there is good news coming from harry
18:18
dent so stay tuned folks hold on oh yeah
18:20
hold on hold on we’ll get there
18:22
but first cryptos
18:23
you actually think cryptos you know
18:26
should we have the stock market crash
18:27
will get hit even harder
18:30
than the stocks
18:31
yes and and let me tell you something
18:32
that’s a good sign you know what i’m
18:35
parroting the cryptos on today on the
18:37
dot-coms amazon came at the end of that
18:40
bubble that wasn’t the bubble the
18:42
amazon.com bubble it was an internet it
18:44
was a broad internet and tech bubble
18:46
the dot-coms came in the last few years
18:49
and started to roar just like the
18:50
cryptos here the end of this bubble and
18:53
then burst amazon went down 95 and the
18:57
internet index went down 96
18:59
i call it the baby bubble new sectors
19:02
emerge the smart people say oh this is
19:05
the next big thing and i am on that
19:06
train i am a crypto i call it pc’s
19:10
internet crypto the three big stages of
19:13
technology this is the next big thing
19:16
but i’ve studied these big things they
19:18
have a baby bubble the most extreme
19:20
crash then they have the daddy bubble
19:23
okay it lasts much longer so i’m saying
19:25
crypto will crash more than the stock
19:27
market 95 96 something like that stock
19:31
market 87
19:33
and guess what will be the best buy out
19:35
of this i’m not going to buy a t and t
19:37
or ibm i’m gonna buy freaking bitcoin
19:40
and ethereum and cardano whoever solana
19:42
whoever survives this thing you know
19:44
there’s nine thousand coins some people
19:45
say there’s 14 this is crazy
19:48
typical of a baby bug you would step in
19:51
and buy oh
19:52
this i’d say it’d be the buy of a
19:55
lifetime not just to buy this next crash
19:57
which will be the largest in our
19:58
lifetime if i’m right but to
20:00
particularly buy the crypto sector
20:03
because it is the leading edge better
20:05
than biotech better than other sectors
20:06
and that’s all part of it too and
20:08
nanotechnology buy the crypto sector
20:11
will be the best buy
20:13
roaring in how long should a crash
20:15
happen on the cryptos yeah okay so so
20:18
they’ll probably be the first to bottom
20:20
maybe you know 2021 and i mean 22 it’s a
20:23
late 22 instead of 23 for most stock and
20:26
i say the next boom will come from 2024
20:30
to
20:32
2036.37 and that’s right about
20:35
parallel to 20-year lag uh the cryptos
20:38
may go a little longer than that but it
20:40
i call the crypto movement a 20-year lag
20:42
on the internet and the internet did the
20:44
same thing remember baby bubble crashed
20:46
96
20:48
and then internet went to 30 went up 600
20:51
times up 600 times in 12 years that’s
20:54
what i’m talking about so that’s bullish
20:57
you couldn’t get more bullish than that
20:59
help me understand this from an
21:00
economist point of view okay really help
21:02
me here because i’ve heard this
21:03
narrative before oh the comparisons to
21:06
dot com but they’re not built the same
21:09
way so why is there this conviction that
21:12
the crypto will have the same historical
21:15
patterns as the dot-com okay okay what
21:18
what the internet did before in the
21:20
dot-com it allowed reta it allowed um
21:23
information to become mass uh you know
21:26
accessible and it allowed retail to
21:28
expand online okay
21:30
what what crypto does what the next boom
21:32
is is finance crypto is the digitization
21:36
here’s the best definition in one
21:38
sentence the digitization of all
21:41
financial assets and money
21:44
that’s what this rebels so the reason
21:46
that it’s the next big thing if it was
21:48
just internet 2 it wouldn’t be another
21:51
big thing it is going to do what
21:53
internet did for everything else for the
21:55
whole my financial assets and money and
21:57
wealth sector so that’s what’s different
22:00
about you got to be different to be the
22:02
next big thing but you have to build on
22:03
the last big thing so that’s why i i’ve
22:06
been sold on crypto from the beginning
22:08
once i heard a guy spoke at one of our
22:10
conferences marcusco and he gave that
22:13
definition and then i got it yeah i like
22:16
that’s a big deal yeah i i didn’t think
22:19
you’d buy or ever buy into crypto so i’m
22:21
interested to hear that
22:22
oh absolutely i i’m saying that is the
22:26
number one sector i’m gonna be saying
22:28
whatever survive and you have to look at
22:30
what survives in a shakeout okay
22:32
general motors basically came out of
22:35
that shakeout and kicked ford’s ass who
22:36
came in leading so something else made
22:38
but you see who shakes out and does the
22:41
best and holds up the best and starts to
22:43
lead the crypto sector should be the
22:45
number one high return sector to invest
22:48
in coming out of this and guess what
22:50
that’s the opposite of what you’d expect
22:52
that it crashes the hardest you buy
22:54
whatever crashes the hardest that still
22:56
has the fundamentals because again i’m
22:58
putting it on a 20-year lag to the
23:01
internet stock so if you’d have bought
23:02
ammo i’m saying buying crypto in 2023
23:06
would be like buying amazon for six
23:09
dollars a share in late 2021 in the last
23:13
crash
23:14
after going down 95 percent that’s what
23:17
i’m saying it’s that cliff went on
23:19
that’s also bearish on bitcoin on last
23:22
week and i think it’s you know
23:23
interesting if we if we if we listen to
23:25
you guys for those who have bitcoin
23:27
holdings or ethereum whatever they’re
23:29
probably looking or listening to this
23:30
now thinking you know what do i do here
23:32
do i get out now and then come back in
23:35
but absolutely okay if something you
23:38
know stock markets and financial
23:40
20 corrections happen all the time in
23:42
bull markets occasionally put 50 if you
23:45
have a cobit or something this is not
23:47
that you do not sit through a 96
23:50
correction okay if you if you do if
23:52
you’re listening to me if you see what i
23:53
see you wouldn’t even think of sitting
23:55
this out you do get out now and i think
23:58
that i thought bitcoin would have one
23:59
more run to 100 grand at the end of this
24:01
year very clear four year cycle by the
24:03
way in crypto 2013 17 and 21. we’re at
24:07
the end of the year i say bitcoin now
24:09
peaked at 68 000. it’s still holding up
24:12
pretty good i would be getting out of
24:14
bitcoin and looking to buy my target for
24:16
bitcoin and some things may be better
24:19
four to seven thousand you see that type
24:21
of number a couple years from now that’s
24:23
when you buy back
24:25
i do not don’t lose 90 of your profits
24:29
take them
24:30
if you all you got to do is get out
24:32
about six months and see if i’m right
24:34
and if i am you’re gonna be very very
24:36
glad you sold out and you’re gonna buy
24:37
so cheap you’re gonna kiss the ground
24:40
let me ask you this let’s get to some
24:42
good news some good news you say by 2024
24:45
we should be out of this so this is the
24:47
opportunity you speak of bitcoin by the
24:49
really um diluted sectors here so we we
24:52
come out of this
24:54
there is
24:56
a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow
24:58
for you
24:59
well yeah i mean what did i say i mean
25:02
amazon went i mean
25:03
the internet stocks went up 600 times
25:05
after they bought them in the last crash
25:07
so in those sectors it’s a lot but i
25:09
mean just the stock market now the thing
25:11
is i do not this is something i’ve been
25:13
saying back for decades
25:16
after this baby boom boom peeks and the
25:18
millennials come along the millennials
25:20
have a shorter boom and it only takes us
25:23
back to where we were at the peak of the
25:24
baby boom in the demographic sector
25:26
which is the most fundamental thing so
25:28
this is not going to go you know i i
25:30
think stocks would be doing the best i
25:33
see is that stocks go back to these
25:35
recent highs by 2037. but if you buy
25:38
them when they’re down at 5 000 and it
25:40
goes back to 30 or 40 000 then that’s
25:42
incredible that’s an incredible return
25:45
but it won’t be as strong a boom as the
25:47
80s and 90s was because this
25:49
generation’s not as big now where you
25:51
will get that is you could go to
25:54
southeast asia asian india
25:56
china led this last boom in asia
25:58
southeast asia and india because china’s
26:01
already peaked in their demographics
26:03
those if you want to get astounding
26:05
returns
26:06
crypto southeast asia and india those
26:08
are the three sectors to be in let’s
26:10
let’s wrap with this i need to ask you
26:12
about you mentioned gold briefly before
26:14
why
26:17
will gold not weather the storm for you
26:19
harry okay gold
26:22
correlates with inflation
26:24
okay
26:25
gold had its best boom ever
26:28
in
26:28
the 60s late 60s and 70s and then
26:31
crashed big time after that okay now it
26:34
came back in this recent period because
26:37
we’ve never seen money printing like
26:38
gold likes to see money printing because
26:40
gold thinks money printing equals
26:42
inflation well we’re getting a little
26:44
inflation at the end of this boom here
26:45
but we haven’t gotten that effect what
26:47
what money printing did was inflate
26:49
financial assets and guess what’s in
26:51
financial assets gold gold had a bubble
26:54
just as big as the stock market it just
26:56
peaked in 2011 instead of 2007 or now
27:00
okay so gold typically will do well if
27:04
i’m right we start to see weakness
27:05
they’re gonna say ah the economy’s
27:07
leaking again they’re gonna print more
27:08
money but when things go down like in
27:10
2008 gold went up in the early stages of
27:13
the 2008 crash and then went down 50
27:17
in in the second half of 2008 when it
27:19
went hit back so gold is not the safe
27:22
haven because we’re going into a
27:24
deflationary
27:25
couple of years not inflation and that’s
27:27
when gold does not be the safe haven so
27:31
gold is not the place to be but i tell
27:32
you if you have a little in your
27:33
portfolio diverse life gold will hold up
27:36
better than most commodities because of
27:38
that
27:38
that at least that image that it’s
27:40
somehow a safe haven
27:42
we have so many different viewpoints on
27:44
this show that’s why i love it um
27:47
okay bring it home for us harry for all
27:49
the folks watching like i said it’s an
27:50
outlook 2022. um you’ve made your case
27:53
for 2022. to get more specific
27:56
yeah i see 2022 from the highest point
27:58
in the stock market early on if not
28:00
already peaking here in late december
28:02
from top the highest point to the lowest
28:04
point will be the worst single year for
28:07
the stock market in all of history now
28:10
that the crash will not be quite as bad
28:12
as 89 but that next year since we’ve
28:15
held this back so long and bubbled it up
28:17
and pushed it so far when it finally
28:19
breaks i think 2022 will be the worst
28:21
single year so
28:23
i just say give me give me like three to
28:25
six months okay
28:27
just just give up a little gains now the
28:29
market’s so stretched and they’re going
28:30
to have to taper you know the market’s
28:32
not going to do great when they’re
28:33
tapering
28:34
just
28:35
be out be safe for several months and if
28:38
it doesn’t start by then okay you can
28:39
jump back in but i’m just telling you if
28:41
you miss this it will happen so fast you
28:44
will not be able to react enough and
28:46
you’ll react just at the wrong point
28:48
when it’s bottoming and then it’ll get
28:50
back past the gains and then it’ll go
28:52
down for a couple years that’s the
28:53
scenario crash 50 or so
28:56
retrace about 40 to 50 of that and then
28:58
go dribble down for a couple years that
29:01
was the same thing happened in the great
29:02
depression and the 2000 to 2002 crash
29:06
led by technology like this
29:08
harry dan thank you so much why do i
29:10
have a feeling that at the holiday
29:12
parties you are the life of it
29:15
i have that as long as i don’t talk
29:17
about the crash i am yeah yeah you’re
29:19
that guy but hey look free newsletter at
29:21
hsn.com
29:23
just listen to me for the next three to
29:24
six months you know if you know you know
29:27
if things don’t pan out at all then you
29:28
can listen to somebody else but i i say
29:30
i’m the guy to listen to here i’m just
29:31
sorry i am and i was introduced to like
29:34
you said at a conference as the
29:35
contrarians contrarian because i was at
29:38
a gold bug conference where everybody
29:40
thinks they’re contrary and i was
29:41
contrary to them
29:43
hilarious harry dent happy holidays
29:45
happy new year come back on soon okay
29:48
okay
29:49
i’ll come find you actually i’ll come
29:50
back
29:52
and thank you all for watching we’ll
29:53
have much more for you so keep staying
29:56
tuned to our outlook 2022 only here on
29:59
stansberryinvestor.com and sign up for
30:00
premiere access at
30:02
danielacamboni.com that’s it for me
30:04
thanks for watching
30:08
[Music]
30:16
[Music]
30:27
you